Bitcoin Battles Death Crosses and a $68,000 Weekly Close Rejection

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of March on the edge, with markets focused on the Middle East.

• Bitcoin erased its latest breakout attempt and closed the weekly candle below key resistance.

• Oil volatility and associated inflation pressures are the week’s main focus for traders.

• Bitcoin has two new death crosses, a firm warning for bulls.

• Derivatives markets suggest a broader Bitcoin price turnaround may be coming.

• Whales show little interest in profit-taking during the trip to $74,000.

Bitcoin reverts to a “boring bear market”

Bitcoin sellers did their best to push the market lower into Sunday’s weekly close, with BTC/USD nearing $65,600 on Bitstamp.

Data from TradingView then showed BTC rebounding, but this was not enough to avoid a weekly close below a key long-term trend line.

As Cointelegraph reported, the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) is particularly significant during bear markets, as its loss as support implies further market downside.

“Bitcoin has since almost entirely cancelled out its recovery from earlier this week,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital responded in an X post on the topic. 

Rekt Capital referred to Bitcoin’s trip to $74,000 amid broad risk-asset volatility thanks to the Middle East conflict.

“Deviation resulted in a quick sell-off over the weekend as expected. $BTC outlook remains unchanged; it’s a boring bear market until proven otherwise,” trader Jelle continued.

As market participants wait for cues, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe sees the overall BTC price action being far from the worst-case scenario.

“Bitcoin is still stuck in the range. That’s not bad, that’s actually quite strong, given: – Oil up 15% again on this Monday morning, highest level since ’22. – Gold and commodities are down – Nasdaq down substantially,” he told X followers on Monday.

As Cointelegraph reported, longer-term BTC price predictions continue to favor a macro bottom at $50,000 or lower.

Oil volatility puts focus on US inflation

This week’s US macro data will no doubt attract more attention than usual as geopolitical upheaval sparks inflation warnings.

The February print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), along with delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data from January, are both due, together with revised US Q4 GDP.

While PCE is known as the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, it is CPI that is currently in the spotlight thanks to its susceptibility to oil prices.

The ongoing oil supply shock focused on the Strait of Hormuz may not be reflected in February’s CPI reading, while the index’s January print came in lower than expected.

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter said that the Strait of Hormuz closure was the largest supply disruption ever.

“The current supply shock is roughly the same size as the top 2-6 COMBINED,” it calculated, with the daily reduction at more than 20 million barrels.

Oil prices nonetheless cooled their rapid rise on Monday after G7 countries suggested an emergency oil reserve release that could total 400 million barrels.

Continuing, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company stressed the oil crisis’ longer-term implications for the Fed.

“Rising oil and gas prices threaten to crimp consumer spending and adds inflationary pressures. The prospect for higher inflation is causing uncertainty over the outlook for monetary policy,” it wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

Mosaic noted that a previous spike in commodities coincided with the 2022 CPI top of 9%.

“The rally in other inflation-sensitive sectors like energy producers is sending a signal on the prospect for rising inflation as well,” it added.

Bitcoin death crosses start to mount

Not only did Bitcoin fail to rescue its 200-week EMA trend line as support during the weekly close, but it also saw a new “death cross.”

The 21-week simple moving average (SMA) fell below its 100-week equivalent as the week ended, marking a classic bearish signal that strengthens the prospect of further BTC price downside.

Last week, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, suggested that the looming death cross would override any relief bounce toward the top of the local trading range.

Specifically, Alan said that the cross would “likely be a precursor to the next leg down unless we get a major bullish catalyst.”

Elsewhere, market participants are concerned by a death cross involving lower time frames: the 50-period and 200-period SMA on the three-day chart.

In recent analysis, trading platform TradingShort warned that bear-market death crosses on three-day time frames have resulted in 50% BTC price drops.

“Given that it has also tested on two out of three past Bear Cycles the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the level of that Death Cross, Bitcoin should be targeting the $40000 – $36000 Zone,” it told X followers.

Derivatives tease bullish relief

Looking for signs of a market turnaround, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant has some potential good news for Bitcoin bulls this week.

In some of its latest research, CryptoQuant reveals a reversal pattern playing out on major exchange Binance’s derivatives market.

The Binance Derivatives Market Index, which combines various market metrics to produce a view of overall momentum, is currently mimicking local BTC price bottoms in 2024 and 2025.

“The index recently dropped to around 0.35, a level similar to what was seen in July–August 2024, and below the 0.43 recorded in April 2025,” contributor Amr Taha summarized in a “Quicktake” blog post. 

Taha acknowledged that the trend may not play out like before, but stressed that derivatives momentum had “weakened significantly.” 

Whales stay on the sidelines above $70,000

Panic selling Bitcoin appears to be a speculator’s game at current prices as whales send less and less BTC to exchanges.

Related: Bitcoin correlation with tech stocks overblown: NYDIG

CryptoQuant reveals that on March 7, a spike in inflows to Binance came overwhelmingly from coins that had previously moved during the week prior.

This contrasts with an inflow event from February, during which coins dormant for the past six to 12 months returned to Binance accounts.

“Such movements are often interpreted as a potential shift in sentiment among certain investor groups, where some holders may be preparing to sell or hedge their positions,” Taha explained.

As BTC/USD passed $70,000 last week, however, Bitcoin whales held off on their urge to take profit, as evidenced by their Binance inflows.

From March 1 to March 8, whale inflows declined from $8.8 billion to $6.6 billion, per CryptoQuant data.

“Interestingly, this reduction occurred while Bitcoin price fluctuated between $65,000 and $72,000, indicating that large investors were not increasing exchange deposits despite ongoing market volatility,” Taha added.