Iran sends millions of barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway

Iran has continued to send large amounts of crude oil via the Strait of Hormuz to China even as the war between U.S.-Israel and Iran has hit broader supplies through the critical waterway, according to ship-tracking data.

Iran has sent at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28, all of which were headed to China, Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers, told CNBC on Tuesday.

The firm monitors vessel movements with satellite imagery, allowing it to capture vessels that would otherwise go undetected if their tracking systems are switched off. Many vessels have “gone dark” after Tehran threatened to attack any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway.

Shipping intelligence data provider Kpler estimates around 12 million barrels of crude oil to have passed through the Strait since the war started. “Given that China has been the primary buyer of Iranian crude in recent years, a significant share of these barrels could ultimately head there,” said Nhway Khin Soe, crude analyst at Kpler, adding that confirming the final destination for these vessels had become increasingly challenging.

China’s National Energy Administration did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comments.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that has been critical to the transportation of about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas, has seen shipping traffic slow to a trickle since the war started last month, with tankers largely avoiding the besieged waterway.

Ten vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz came under Tehran’s attack less than two weeks into the war, killing at least seven seafarers onboard, according to the International Maritime Organization.

Oil tankers transiting through the Strait “must be very careful,” a spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in an interview with CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Monday.

Three of the six tankers captured on satellite imagery that have departed Iran since Feb. 28 were Iranian-flagged, said Madani.

As oil prices have soared on supply disruption fears, U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade that ships stranded near the passageway need to “show some guts” and push through the channel. “There’s nothing to be afraid of, they have no Navy, we sunk all their ships,” Trump said.

Kharg island terminal, located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran, has long been the country’s primary oil export facility, handling around 90% of its crude exports before tankers travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, Iran has also resumed loading tankers at the Jask oil and gas terminal along the Gulf of Oman, south of the Strait of Hormuz, which could add additional capacity to crude shipments.

An Iranian vessel was loading 2 million barrels of crude oil — only the fifth such loading there in the past five years, according to TankerTrackers.

The renewed activity at Jask signals that Tehran is exploring alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, though the extent to which it can serve as a viable route for shipments remains uncertain, said Soe.

The Jask oil facility — Iran’s only crude export outlet on the Sea of Oman that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely — has rarely been used as it appears far less efficient.

Loading a single Very Large Crude Carrier, a class of supertanker built for long-haul oil transport, can take up to 10 days, Madani said. “It has good domestic propaganda value, but not much in terms of a logistical advantage.” For comparison, a VLCC takes about one or two days to load in the Kharg Island.

While Tehran continues to export to China, shipments of about 1.22 million barrels per day (mbd) were significantly lower than the levels before the war broke out.

Iran exported 2.16 mbd in February, the highest level since July 2018, according to Kpler’s Soe, and they were all destined for China, as Beijing amassed reserves to cushion the potential energy supply risk.

In the first two months of the year, Beijing accelerated its efforts for building its oil stockpile, with crude imports soaring 15.8% compared to a year earlier, customs data showed Tuesday.

According to Kpler, Iranian crude loadings also hit a record high of 3.78 mbp in the week of Feb. 16, more than double the previous weekly average of roughly 1.48 mbd.

Over the years, China has built up large crude stockpiles, accumulating an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of inventory as of January, which could fulfill demand for 3 to 4 months, according to Atlantic Council.

And that build-up took on renewed urgency this year as U.S. President Donald Trump targeted two of Beijing’s most critical sources of supply, Venezuela and Iran. The U.S. captured Venezuela’s leader Nicolas Maduro in a military strike at the start of the year, while Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the U.S.-Israel war against Iran last month.

The Middle East war has shown few signs of abating, keeping tensions around the Strait of Hormuz elevated and global energy markets on edge.

Oil prices surged to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday, levels unseen in four years, after several oil producing countries in the Persian Gulf began curbing production and as traffic via Hormuz Strait has effectively come to a standstill.

Global leaders have scrambled to contain the fallout from a potential oil shock, with the Group of Seven leaders including the U.S., reportedly considering the largest ever release of oil reserves and Trump signaling that the war may be over soon.

Oil prices have since pulled back, with U.S. WTI crude oil for April delivery easing to around $84.9 a barrel as of Tuesday 10:50 p.m. ET, and global benchmark Brent with May delivery at $88.9 per barrel.

— CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng, Sam Meredith contributed to this report.