Steel Dynamics (STLD) Stock Stumbles as Q1 Guidance Falls Short of Wall Street Estimates

TLDR

• Steel Dynamics guided Q1 EPS of $2.73–$2.77, well below the analyst consensus of $3.24
• The stock fell 1.3% in premarket trading on Tuesday
• Despite the miss, guidance is up from $1.44 EPS a year ago and $1.82 last quarter
• Customer order backlog is more than 35% higher than a year ago, extending into Q3 2026
• Peers Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs also dipped in premarket on the news

Steel Dynamics (STLD) issued first-quarter 2026 earnings guidance that came in well below what Wall Street was expecting. The company projected EPS of $2.73 to $2.77, versus analyst consensus of $3.24, sending the stock down 1.3% in premarket trading on Tuesday.

Steel Dynamics, Inc., STLD

That said, the numbers aren’t bad in isolation. Q1 guidance is up from $1.82 EPS last quarter and $1.44 in Q1 2025 — so year-over-year, the company is growing. The problem is that analysts had set a higher bar, and STLD didn’t clear it.

The company pointed to stronger steel operations as the driver of sequential improvement. Higher shipments and wider metal margins — where average selling values rose faster than scrap costs — are expected to boost profitability compared to Q4 2025.

The metals recycling segment should also see improved earnings, thanks to higher ferrous and nonferrous selling values. However, shipments there are expected to be lower due to winter weather disruptions in January and February.

Steel fabrication is expected to hold roughly steady with Q4, with higher volumes making up for some margin pressure from rising raw material costs.

One number that stood out: STLD’s customer order backlog is over 35% higher than a year ago and runs into Q3 2026. That suggests demand isn’t going anywhere fast.

The company also flagged strong demand across non-residential construction, energy, and automotive sectors.

Columbus Aluminum Mill Progress

Steel Dynamics continued commissioning its Columbus, Mississippi aluminum flat rolled products mill during the quarter. The facility has already produced finished goods for the industrial and beverage can sectors, and has received product qualifications from several can sheet buyers.

The company has also produced aluminum hot band for automotive applications — a milestone as it moves into new product territory.

Share buybacks were temporarily slowed in Q1. The company used capital for its annual profit-sharing payment of roughly $126 million and increased working capital tied to aluminum operations. It repurchased about $66 million of stock during the quarter and plans to return to normal buyback levels in Q2.

STLD has raised its dividend for 13 consecutive years. In recent weeks, it announced a 6% increase to its quarterly dividend, bringing it to $0.53 per share, payable in early April.

The stock has gained roughly 37% over the past 12 months, lifted by Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. But over the past month, uncertainty around whether those tariffs could be reduced has weighed on the sector.

Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs Also Lower

The guidance miss rippled through the sector. Nucor (NUE) fell 0.5% in premarket, and Cleveland-Cliffs dropped 0.2%.

Steel Dynamics will report full Q1 2026 results after the market close on Monday, April 20.

On the M&A front, Steel Dynamics and SGH Ltd. had raised their joint takeover bid for BlueScope Steel to $11 billion — a 14% increase — but BlueScope rejected the offer. The companies have said they won’t raise the bid again unless a competing offer emerges.

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