How The Reds Can Shock The Dodgers And The World

It’s already over and it hasn’t even begun — at least that’s the vibe we’re catching.

The small-market, small-budget Cincinnati Reds, who eked their way into the postseason with a mere 83 wins, will battle one of the most powerful empires in the baseball universe: the Los Angeles Dodgers. And nobody — not the experts, not the bookmakers, not even the ghost of Pete Rose — gives Cincinnati much of a chance, if any, against Los Angeles in a best-of-three National League Wild Card Series that begins Tuesday (9:08 p.m. ET, ESPN).

But could the experts and literally everyone else be wrong? Could the Reds drop the defending world champs and advance to play the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS? Well, here are three reasons how Cincy could pull off a shocker for the ages:

1. Starting with trouble

The Dodgers will have to contend with two starting pitchers with ERAs below three in Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, who will start games one and two respectively.

Greene — a real-deal ace — went 7-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 19 starts this year despite missing more than two months with a groin injury. His fastball averages 99.5 mph and his slider clocks in at almost 90 mph, leading to a 31.4% strikeout-rate that rates fifth-best in baseball.

Abbott, a 26-year-old lefty who went 10-7 with a 2.87 ERA in 29 starts, thrives at limiting hard contact and could neutralize L.A.’s scary left-handed bats, specifically Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.

And if there’s a game three, the Reds could turn to another crafty left-hander, Nick Lodolo, who went 9-8 with a 3.33 ERA in 29 outings. But Lodolo has been dogged by a groin strain, so the Reds may be more comfortable starting Brady Singer, who won 14 games in 2025.

Either way, Cincinnati will send out three top-notch starting pitchers in a short series, and that’s a huge reason why they have a chance to stun L.A.

2. A Cruz Missile…

Quick question: Who’s the most electric player in the series? The first response would be Ohtani. But the correct one is Elly De La Cruz, the switch-hitting star for the Reds.

De La Cruz has the ability to dominate the game at the plate, on the bases and in the field. Don’t believe it, well, only De La Cruz could do this:

In just his third MLB season, De La Cruz earned his second All-Star selection while batting .264 with 22 home runs, 86 RBIs, a .776 OPS, and 37 stolen bases. In each of the last four categories, he leads his team.

Yes, De La Cruz is prone to strikeouts (181 this season) and, yes, he’s not impacting the ball as hard as he did in 2024. But he’s still one of baseball’s most compelling talents, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he dazzles in the postseason spotlight against the Dodgers.

3. Tito knows upsets

Maybe the biggest reason why the Reds can shock Los Angeles comes down to one man and one man only: Terry Francona, a two-time World Series champion and three-time manager of the year. Francona’s 44 career playoff wins rank seventh-most all time, trailing only the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts and the Texas Rangers’ Bruce Bochy among active managers.

At 66 years old, Francona left managerial retirement to lead the 2025 Reds, and it wasn’t going so great. On Sept. 5, the Reds were a game under .500, and at that point, Fangraphs’ metrics gave them just a 1.3% chance of reaching the postseason.

The Reds won 13 of their next 21 games, leapfrogging two teams in the process to lock up the final spot in the NL bracket. Credit Francona for inspiring his team to play its best ball in the final month of the regular season.

And let’s not forget, Francona knows a little something about unbelievable upsets. In 2004, he managed the Boston Red Sox, who became the first team in MLB history to come back from a 3-0 series deficit to win a best-of-seven series when the Sox defeated the New York Yankees in the ALCS.

So if anybody can motivate the Reds to pull off a stunner, it’s Francona.