The post Liquidity Shock Is Ending, Bitcoin’s Bull Case Remains Alive appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Bitcoin 27 September 2025 | 03:05 The sluggish performance of Bitcoin in recent months may have less to do with fading demand and more to do with U.S. government cash management, according to Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor. Pal points to the Treasury General Account – Washington’s operating fund at the Federal Reserve – as the hidden force that drained liquidity from risk assets through the summer. Since July, the Treasury has issued roughly $500 billion in bonds to refill the account, lifting its balance to around $800 billion. That supply shock, he argues, temporarily sapped energy from markets, with crypto feeling the impact most acutely. The pause came at an awkward time for chart-watchers. Bitcoin has historically tracked shifts in global M2 money supply with a lag of about 12 weeks, a relationship that had even suggested a path toward $200,000 by late 2025. Instead, as M2 expanded, BTC moved sideways, leading some to question whether the model had broken. Pal disagrees. He believes the disruption was temporary and that, with the Treasury now holding enough reserves, the liquidity squeeze will fade by the end of this month. If that plays out, he expects Bitcoin to reconnect with its monetary backdrop and resume the broader uptrend implied by the M2 model. In his view, the summer slump was not the death of the correlation, but proof of how sensitive crypto remains to sudden policy-driven shifts in dollar liquidity. The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Author Alexander Zdravkov is a person who always looks for the… The post Liquidity Shock Is Ending, Bitcoin’s Bull Case Remains Alive appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Bitcoin 27 September 2025 | 03:05 The sluggish performance of Bitcoin in recent months may have less to do with fading demand and more to do with U.S. government cash management, according to Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor. Pal points to the Treasury General Account – Washington’s operating fund at the Federal Reserve – as the hidden force that drained liquidity from risk assets through the summer. Since July, the Treasury has issued roughly $500 billion in bonds to refill the account, lifting its balance to around $800 billion. That supply shock, he argues, temporarily sapped energy from markets, with crypto feeling the impact most acutely. The pause came at an awkward time for chart-watchers. Bitcoin has historically tracked shifts in global M2 money supply with a lag of about 12 weeks, a relationship that had even suggested a path toward $200,000 by late 2025. Instead, as M2 expanded, BTC moved sideways, leading some to question whether the model had broken. Pal disagrees. He believes the disruption was temporary and that, with the Treasury now holding enough reserves, the liquidity squeeze will fade by the end of this month. If that plays out, he expects Bitcoin to reconnect with its monetary backdrop and resume the broader uptrend implied by the M2 model. In his view, the summer slump was not the death of the correlation, but proof of how sensitive crypto remains to sudden policy-driven shifts in dollar liquidity. The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Author Alexander Zdravkov is a person who always looks for the…

Liquidity Shock Is Ending, Bitcoin’s Bull Case Remains Alive

2025/09/27 08:21
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Bitcoin

The sluggish performance of Bitcoin in recent months may have less to do with fading demand and more to do with U.S. government cash management, according to Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor.

Pal points to the Treasury General Account – Washington’s operating fund at the Federal Reserve – as the hidden force that drained liquidity from risk assets through the summer.

Since July, the Treasury has issued roughly $500 billion in bonds to refill the account, lifting its balance to around $800 billion. That supply shock, he argues, temporarily sapped energy from markets, with crypto feeling the impact most acutely.

The pause came at an awkward time for chart-watchers. Bitcoin has historically tracked shifts in global M2 money supply with a lag of about 12 weeks, a relationship that had even suggested a path toward $200,000 by late 2025.

Instead, as M2 expanded, BTC moved sideways, leading some to question whether the model had broken.

Pal disagrees. He believes the disruption was temporary and that, with the Treasury now holding enough reserves, the liquidity squeeze will fade by the end of this month. If that plays out, he expects Bitcoin to reconnect with its monetary backdrop and resume the broader uptrend implied by the M2 model.

In his view, the summer slump was not the death of the correlation, but proof of how sensitive crypto remains to sudden policy-driven shifts in dollar liquidity.


The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Author

Alexander Zdravkov is a person who always looks for the logic behind things. He is fluent in German and has more than 3 years of experience in the crypto space, where he skillfully identifies new trends in the world of digital currencies. Whether providing in-depth analysis or daily reports on all topics, his deep understanding and enthusiasm for what he does make him a valuable member of the team.

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