Tesla (TSLA) Stock Rallies as Top Analyst Hikes Price Target to $600 – Here’s Why

TLDR

• Wedbush analyst Dan Ives raised Tesla price target to $600 from $500, the highest on Wall Street
• Tesla stock has gained 30% over the past three months, trading well above the average analyst price target of $342
• Ives sees Tesla reaching $2 trillion market cap by early 2026 and $3 trillion by end of 2026 in bull case scenario
• Q3 vehicle deliveries expected around 448,000 to 500,000 units, with results due early October
• Tesla received 10 price target increases in September alone from various analysts

Tesla stock closed Friday at $440.40, up 4% for the day and capping off a strong September that saw the electric vehicle maker gain 32% for the month.

The rally got fresh fuel from Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who raised his price target to $600 from $500. This marks the highest target on Wall Street for Tesla shares.

Ives kept his Buy rating on the stock. He cited Tesla’s progress in artificial intelligence and autonomous driving as key drivers for the upgrade.

The $600 target represents 42% upside from Thursday’s closing price. It also sits 23% above Tesla’s all-time high of $488.54 reached in December 2024.

Tesla’s recent performance has left many analyst price targets in the dust. The stock has gained 30% over the past three months heading into Friday’s session.

The average analyst price target sits at $342 per share, according to FactSet. Tesla’s current price trades well above this level, a common occurrence for the stock.

Robotaxi Dreams Drive Valuations

Ives sees massive potential in Tesla’s autonomous vehicle plans. He estimates Tesla could capture around 70% of the global autonomous vehicle market over the next decade.

The company is scaling up its self-driving taxi service launched in June in Austin, Texas. Ives expects robotaxis to roll out to over 30 U.S. cities within the next year.

Tesla also plans to begin selling its humanoid robot called Optimus in 2026. This adds another revenue stream to the company’s AI ambitions.

The analyst values the AI and autonomous opportunity at least $1 trillion for Tesla alone. He believes Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap by early 2026 in a bull case scenario.

A $3 trillion valuation could arrive by the end of 2026 as full-scale production begins, according to Ives. These projections hinge on successful execution of Tesla’s autonomous and robotics roadmap.

Tesla’s full self-driving feature could see penetration increase by more than 50%. This would change the financial model and margins for the company.

Strong Quarter Expected

Tesla faces a key test with third-quarter vehicle deliveries due early October. Analyst consensus points to around 448,000 global deliveries for Q3.

This would represent about 17% growth from the second quarter but still down 3% versus Q3 2024. However, more recent estimates suggest deliveries could reach closer to 500,000 units.

Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $435 from $345, expecting 461,500 deliveries for Q3. UBS analysts predict 475,000 deliveries, up from their prior view of 431,000.

Piper Sandler projects 495,000 Q3 deliveries while GLJ Research forecasts 467,000. Kalshi prediction market pegs deliveries at 505,000 units.

The U.S. EV tax credit expires on September 30, which could boost near-term sales. Tesla updated its website showing customers can still take advantage of the credit if they order by that date.

Analyst Sentiment Warming

Tesla received 10 price target increases in September alone, showing growing analyst optimism. About 47% of analysts covering Tesla rate the stock a Buy.

This compares to the S&P 500 average Buy rating of 55%. Tesla often trades above average analyst price targets, making it a polarizing stock on Wall Street.

Mizuho raised its price target to $450 from $375 on Tuesday. Baird analyst Ben Kallo upgraded Tesla to outperform from neutral with a $548 target, up from $320.

Ives’ $600 target values Tesla at about 214 times his estimated 2026 earnings per share of $2.80. The stock currently trades for roughly 170 times consensus 2026 EPS estimates of $2.50.

Tesla stock finished the week with a 3.4% gain and sits just 11% below all-time highs at Friday’s close.

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