Countdown To ‘Bitcoin Bottom Day’: Why September 21 Could Change Everything

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has experienced a notable decline, erasing the gains it achieved following the recent decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates. 

After soaring to nearly $118,000—just 5% shy of its all-time high—the market has faced renewed uncertainty. Despite this setback, experts emphasize that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic, especially as September 21 approaches, a date identified as pivotal for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Will September 21 Mark The Start Of A New Bull Run?

Market analyst Timothy Peterson highlights that historically, Bitcoin has finished the year higher 70% of the time after September 21, with a median increase exceeding 50%. He has dubbed this date “Bitcoin Bottom Day,” suggesting that the odds of a price increase are significantly favorable. 

Peterson notes that two of the three downturns in Bitcoin’s history occurred during established bear markets in 2018 and 2022, conditions that do not reflect the current market situation. This leads him to believe that the chances of a price rise are closer to 90% this year.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s track record suggests it has a nearly perfect chance of holding its gains six months post-September 21. Peterson estimates there is at least a 70% probability that Bitcoin will not drop below the $100,000 mark again.

Analysts Warn Of ‘Sell the News’ Bitcoin Phase 

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, also points to the recent 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed as a factor that initially boosted Bitcoin’s price, briefly pushing it above $117,000. This cut, the first in nine months, reflects increased liquidity in the market. 

However, Lee cautions that the median projection of only 50 basis points in total cuts for the year could temper some of the optimism, introducing potential volatility as traders adjust their strategies. 

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a dip of 5% to 8% following rate cuts before resuming its upward trend, suggesting a possible “sell the news” phase in the coming days.

Despite these fluctuations, Lee remains bullish about the macroeconomic environment, asserting that lower yields on money-market funds (MMFs) are likely to direct capital toward alternative investments, such as cryptocurrencies. 

He emphasizes Bitcoin’s role as a hedge in this risk-on climate, especially with approximately $7.2 trillion currently held in cash-like instruments.

Looking ahead, Lee predicts that the cryptocurrency may consolidate in the near term before targeting prices between $123,000 and $150,000, should additional rate cuts materialize. 

Analysts at Bitfinex also share a positive outlook, projecting that with three anticipated rate cuts by the end of the year and steady inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin could reach between $125,000 and $135,000 by year-end. 

However, they also caution that if inflation or economic growth data hinder the Fed’s ability to proceed with further cuts, Bitcoin might stabilize within a range of $110,000 to $115,000 as institutional participation and ETF assets under management provide a solid floor.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com