Rocket Lab vs AST SpaceMobile: Which Space Stock Is the Better Buy Right Now?

TLDR

• Rocket Lab reported record Q1 2026 revenue of $200.3 million, up 63.5% year over year
• Rocket Lab holds a $2.2 billion backlog and over $2 billion in total liquidity
• AST SpaceMobile reported just $14.74 million in Q1 2026 revenue, missing analyst expectations
• AST secured over $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments in 2025 and holds ~$3.5 billion in cash
• Analysts rate Rocket Lab a Moderate Buy; AST SpaceMobile carries a more cautious Reduce consensus

Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are two of the most watched space stocks right now. But they tell very different stories. One is a growing business with real revenue. The other is a high-risk bet on a big idea.

Rocket Lab posted record revenue of $200.3 million in Q1 2026, up 63.5% from the same period last year. Its gross margin hit 38.2%, also a record. The company’s backlog reached $2.2 billion, up 20.2% from the prior quarter.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., RKLB

For the full year 2025, Rocket Lab brought in around $602 million in revenue, up 38%. It ended that year with a backlog of $1.85 billion.

The company has more than $2 billion in total liquidity. That gives it room to fund big projects like its Neutron rocket and its recent acquisition of Motiv Space Systems.

Rocket Lab is no longer just a small rocket company. It now operates across launch services, spacecraft systems, defense, and satellites. That broader model gives investors more to work with.

The risks are real, though. Rocket Lab is still spending heavily. Its Neutron rocket program is a key milestone. Government contracts can be unpredictable. Still, the company has more revenue visibility than most space stocks.

AST SpaceMobile: High Risk, High Reward

AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network that connects regular smartphones directly — no special hardware needed. If it scales, the upside could be large. But the business is still early.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

In Q1 2026, AST reported $14.74 million in revenue and a loss of $0.66 per share. Both missed analyst expectations.

Q4 2025 looked better. AST brought in $54.31 million that quarter, well above forecasts. The company also said it locked in over $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments from partners during 2025.

AST holds around $3.5 billion in cash. That matters because deploying and scaling its BlueBird satellite network will cost a lot.

Revenue is uneven. Losses are large. Execution risk is high. But the long-term concept still draws investor interest.

What Analysts Think

Rocket Lab holds a Moderate Buy consensus on Wall Street. It has 2 Strong Buy ratings, 12 Buy ratings, 4 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell rating. The average price target sits around $93.67.

AST SpaceMobile carries a Reduce consensus. It has 2 Buy ratings, 6 Hold ratings, and 3 Sell ratings. The average price target is around $82.51.

That gap reflects how analysts see the two stocks. Rocket Lab is viewed as the more dependable business. AST is seen as more speculative.

Rocket Lab is the stronger operating business today. AST SpaceMobile offers bigger potential upside, but with much more risk attached.

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