Bullish Trigger for 2026 Rally?

XRP (XRP) held above a key demand zone that has provided support for its price throughout 2025. Will holding this level and a reducing balance on exchanges trigger the start of a sustained recovery in 2026?

Key takeaways:

• XRP supply on exchanges has dropped to an eight-year low, signalling reduced selling pressure.

• XRP price bulls look to establish strong support at $1.78 for the next leg up.

XRP supply on exchanges fall to seven-year lows

As Cointelegraph reported, there has been a sharp decrease in the XRP supply on exchanges over the last 60 days, according to data from Glassnode.

Related: XRP price below $2: Negative sentiment signals ‘strong rebound’ ahead

The XRP balance on exchanges dropped by 2.16 billion tokens to 1.6 billion on Tuesday, from 3.76 billion on Oct. 8, levels last seen in August 2018.

A reducing balance on exchanges suggests a lack of intention to sell by holders, reinforcing the upside potential for XRP. 

“$XRP supply tightens with about 1.5 Billion left on exchanges,” said trader and  analyst LeviRietveld in a Monday post on X, adding:

The sharp decline coincided precisely with record exchange outflows, as the XRP net position change among exchanges fell by 1.4 billion XRP on Oct. 19, marking the largest spike in history.

Such outflows typically indicate strong accumulation by large holders, who move tokens to cold storage or into investment products, thereby reducing immediate sell-side pressure.

“ETFs are draining $XRP from exchanges, tightening liquidity,” said pseudonymous trader Skipper in a Tuesday analysis on X, adding that the altcoin may cement its position as an institutional-grade asset in 2026. 

The trader added:

XRP sits on strong support above $1.78

XRP’s recent drawdown was stopped by buyer congestion from a key demand zone between $1.60 and $1.84, which has supported the price throughout 2025.

Holding above this support level has previously been preceded by significant recoveries in XRP price, as shown in the chart below.

Glassnode’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD), which shows the prices at which the current supply was created, indicates that $1.78 is the most significant support for XRP, where investors acquired 1.87 billion tokens.

There is no significant support below this level, and losing it dims any hopes of an XRP price recovery in 2026.

On the other hand, a rebound from this zone could confirm a triple-bottom breakout in the weekly timeframe targeting $3.79, according to analysts VipRoseTr. 

As Cointelegraph reported, XRP’s price could remain range-bound into 2026, with analysts saying a stronger uptrend will likely depend on fresh bullish catalysts emerging later in the cycle.

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