Kristi Noem has major incentive to leave DHS for Senate bid – and quickly

Kristi Noem has major incentive to leave her job overseeing the Department of Homeland Security and return to South Dakota for a possible Senate bid, but she has to make her decision quickly.

President Donald Trump has been deeply reluctant to fire cabinet members in his second term, but Noem has faced intense bipartisan criticism – and from within DHS – since the shootings of Renée Good and Alex Pretti by immigration agents in Minneapolis, and The Atlantic reported that Republicans back in her home state believe she's plotting a return to challenge Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD).

“It’s something people are talking about across the state,” said one Republican involved in South Dakota politics, "and based on everything I’ve been hearing, Mike Rounds would handily win that race.”

Republican strategists have warned Noem's deportation operation is a political liability heading into the midterm, and one source familiar with the discussions told The Atlantic that her position in the cabinet is no longer secure, although Trump continues to praise her in public comments and the White House disputed that changes were being considered.

"President Trump has assembled the most talented and America First cabinet and staff in history," said White House spokesperson Davis Ingle.

Tricia McLaughlin, who announced this week she's leaving her positions as DHS spokesperson, declined to comment on Noem's political future, but she has a major incentive to leave now and launch a bid to challenge Rounds – another former South Dakota governor – for a Senate seat.

"To get into the race, Noem would have to register for the primary and collect the 2,171 supportive signatures statewide by the end of next month," wrote The Atlantic's Michael Scherer. "A Noem adviser told me today that she has no plans to leave. But Noem could have an incentive to seek elective office if Democrats remain on track to win back control of the House and launch investigations into her tenure at the Department of Homeland Security. A Senate seat would give her both a professional staff and a fundraising platform to help defend herself."

Rounds spoke out against Noem after she revealed her decision to kill her family dog because she believed it was untrainable, and a GOP strategist alluded to that infamous lore when assessing the political state of play in a potential matchup between the DHS secretary and Rounds, who's been criticized by Trump but is an ally of Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) .

"Mike Rounds is so unpopular amongst Republican primary voters, he’d lose to a dead dog,” said that national Republican strategist.