The Week Ahead: Nvidia Q4 Earnings, Trump State of the Union, and Producer Price Index

TLDR

• Nvidia reports Q4 earnings Wednesday — the biggest test of AI spending confidence so far in 2026
• Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs 6-3; Trump responded with a new 10% global tariff
• Trump delivers State of the Union Tuesday, expected to outline his tariff replacement plans
• Oil prices up 15% in 2026 as US-Iran nuclear talks hit a 10-day deadline with military action possible
• Friday’s Producer Price Index and multiple Fed speakers round out a data-heavy week

This week brings one of the most loaded market calendars of 2026. Nvidia earnings, a presidential address, fresh inflation data, and rising geopolitical oil risk all land within days of each other.

Markets closed last week on a positive note. The S&P 500 finished up 1.1%, the Nasdaq gained 1.3%, and the Dow added 0.3%. Much of that momentum came from Friday’s Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs.

The Tariff Ruling and Trump’s Next Move

The Supreme Court voted 6-3 to strike down Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping tariffs. Stocks turned green after the decision, though the reaction was calm.

Analysts said markets had largely priced in the ruling. IEEPA tariffs made up around 60% of all tariffs imposed, but one analyst described the economic impact as limited.

Trump moved quickly. The White House announced a replacement 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Potential refunds from the struck-down tariffs could total $175 billion, a matter now headed to trade courts.

Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday is expected to outline further tariff strategy alongside housing and tax policy updates.

Nvidia and the Earnings Slate

Nvidia reports Q4 results after Wednesday’s market close. As the world’s most valuable company, its numbers are treated as a direct read on the health of AI investment. CEO Jensen Huang is expected to address chip demand and Nvidia’s position in the Chinese market.

Also reporting this week are Salesforce, Dell, Lowe’s, and Home Depot. Home improvement retailers have been hit by a slow housing market, making their results a proxy for housing sector health.

Berkshire Hathaway reports Saturday. It is the first report under new CEO Greg Abel, following Warren Buffett’s retirement.

Several Canadian banks also report, including Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto Dominion, and Bank of Nova Scotia.

Oil, Iran, and the Risk Premium

Oil prices are up roughly 15% since January. The driver is growing tension between the US and Iran over nuclear negotiations. Trump gave Iran a 10-day deadline on Thursday to reach a deal.

Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for around 20 million barrels of oil per day. Rystad Energy analysts estimate a limited US strike could push prices up $10 per barrel. A sustained campaign could add $15 or more.

Friday’s Producer Price Index will offer a read on upstream inflation. Multiple Federal Reserve officials speak throughout the week, including Governor Christopher Waller, who has backed steeper rate cuts.

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