ES leads while Dow tests pivot and Nasdaq pressures support

London mid-session shows a mixed index-futures structure ahead of New York, with S&P 500 futures above CP/POC, Dow futures below pivot, and Nasdaq futures testing lower-gate support.

MacroStructure Futures Desk Report — Feb 23, 2026

New York Session Prep | YM, ES, and Nasdaq Futures (London Mid Session Read).

Today’s desk report is built around the same MacroStructure process: define the levels first, then track how price responds around the central pivot (CP), gates, and internal profile structure.

At the London mid-session, the index complex is not fully aligned:

• S&P 500 Futures (ES) is holding above CP/POC and rotating toward the upper gate.
• Dow Futures (YM) is still below CP after a recovery from POC.
• Nasdaq Futures (MNQ/ENQ) remains below CP, with pressure building near the lower gate.

This split matters into the New York session because it can either resolve into broad upside alignment (if YM/MNQ reclaim key levels) or shift into a rotational/defensive tone if ES loses its support structure.

Dow Futures (YM) – London Mid session read

Session condition: Neutral / decision point at CP

Major intraday levels

• Upper range: 50,360.
• Central Pivot (CP): 49,606.
• Lower range: 48,852.
• POC: 49,360.

Gate structure

• Upper gate: 49,784 – 50,000.
• Lower gate: 49,428 – 49,208.

Current position

As of the update, Dow Futures trades at 49,548, which keeps price below the central pivot (49,606) and still inside the broader intraday structure.

Price has rotated up from the POC area (49,360), but the market is now sitting just under the CP, which remains the key decision point.

Structure read

• Hold/reclaim above CP (49,606): opens the path toward the upper gate (49,784 – 50,000)
• Failure at CP: keeps the structure rotational/softer and brings the lower gate (49,428 – 49,208) back into focus

The CP is the session control level here. Price is close enough to test either side, so acceptance matters more than the first reaction.

TPO/Internal structure read

The internal TPO structure shows a positive delta rotation from the POC toward the CP, which supports the recovery attempt. But the upside case still needs acceptance above CP to progress.

At this stage, the move still looks more like a rotation within the structure than a confirmed upside auction.

YM desk take

Dow has completed the first part of the recovery by rotating up from POC, but 49,606 (CP) still separates a stronger continuation from another fade back into range.

S&P 500 Futures (ES) – London Mid session read

Session condition: Constructive above CP/POC.

Major intraday levels

• Upper range: 7,010.00.
• Central Pivot (CP): 6,866.50.
• Lower range: 6,640.50.
• POC: 6,872.50.

Gate structure

• Upper gate: 6,909.75 – 6,936.50.
• Lower gate: 6,803.25 – 6,753.50.

Current position

As of the update, S&P 500 Futures trades at 6,905.75, holding above both the central pivot (6,866.50) and the POC (6,872.50).

That keeps the short-term structure constructive, with price rotating into the upper half of the intraday map and probing the upper gate.

Structure read

• Hold above CP (6,866.50): keeps the upside rotation active toward the upper gate (6,909.75 – 6,936.50).
• Acceptance above 6,909.75: improves the odds of a fuller test across the upper-gate zone.
• Loss of CP: weakens the recovery and shifts focus back toward the lower gate (6,803.25 – 6,753.50).

ES is already in the upper half of the map, so the next move depends on whether buyers can maintain control above CP/POC rather than just tag resistance.

TPO/Internal structure read

The internal TPO structure shows a positive delta rotation from the POC toward the upper gate, which supports the current upside auction attempt.

The read remains constructive, but momentum still needs to be sustained above the central pivot. A move back below CP would likely shift ES into a more balanced rotation.

ES desk take

ES is the stronger index in the group at this stage, with price holding above CP and POC and rotating toward the upper gate. The upside remains constructive, but it still needs acceptance to avoid slipping back into a range trade.

Nasdaq Futures (MNQ/ENQ) – London mid session read

Session condition: Defensive/lower-gate pressure.

Major intraday levels

• Upper range: 28,014.75.
• Central Pivot (CP): 25,514.25.
• Lower range: 23,434.00.
• POC: 24,848.00.

Gate structure

• Upper gate: 26,104.00 – 26,469.00.
• Lower gate: 25,023.00 – 24,719.00.

Current position

As of the update, Nasdaq Futures trades at 24,932, which keeps price below the central pivot (25,514.25) but still above the POC (24,848).

That places Nasdaq in a weaker intraday position relative to ES, with price holding in the lower half of the map and close to the lower-gate area.

Structure read

• Reclaim/hold above CP (25,514.25): would improve structure and reopen the path toward the upper gate (26,104 – 26,469)
• Failure below CP: keeps downside pressure in place and maintains focus on the lower gate (25,023 – 24,719)
• Loss of lower-gate support: increases the risk of rotation deeper into the lower part of the broader structure

TPO/Internal structure read

The internal TPO structure reflects a negative delta rotation from the top side of the upper-gate region back toward the POC and lower-gate area, showing that sellers have regained control of the recent rotation.

The key point now is that pressure is building at the lower gate. If the market fails to hold this area cleanly, the auction can continue lower into the lower portion of the structure.

Nasdaq desk take

Nasdaq is currently the softer of the three indices. It is holding above POC for now, but below CP with pressure near the lower gate keeps the structure vulnerable unless buyers can reclaim the pivot and reset the auction higher.

Cross-market read (London mid session – New York session prep)

The index complex is showing a mixed internal structure into the New York build:

• ES is relatively stronger (above CP and POC, testing the upper-gate zone).
• YM is at a decision point (below CP, but recovering from POC).
• Nasdaq is weaker (below CP, pressure building near the lower gate).

What does this means into NY

• Bullish alignment improves if:
• • ES holds above CP/POC.
  • YM reclaims and accepts above CP.
  • Nasdaq stabilises above the lower gate and starts reclaiming toward CP.
• Rotational/defensiveRotational/downside tone increases if:
• • ES loses CP.
  • YM fails again at CP.
  • Nasdaq loses lower-gate support and extends lower.

Cross-market divergence remains the key risk into New York. If ES continues to hold strength while Nasdaq stays below CP, upside attempts may lack broad participation and remain rotational rather than trend-driven.

What to Watch Into the New York open

• ES: Can it convert upper-gate probing into acceptance while holding CP/POC?
• YM: Does price reclaim 49,606 (CP) and align with ES strength?
• Nasdaq: Can lower-gate support hold and stop the negative delta pressure from extending lower?
• Cross-market confirmation: Are all three indices accepting above their key control levels, or does divergence persist?

Trigger Map (Acceptance vs Failure Checklist)

Upside confirmation improves if:

• ES holds CP/POC and accepts through the upper-gate zone.
• YM reclaims and accepts above 49,606 (CP).
• Nasdaq stabilises above the lower gate and rotates back toward CP.

Rotational/downside pressure increases if:

• ES loses CP.
• YM fails again at CP.
• Nasdaq loses lower-gate support and extends below the current lower structure.

New York open execution note (First 15–30 Minutes)

For the New York open, the first 15–30 minutes should help confirm whether price is accepting beyond the London structure or simply extending into a fade. The focus remains on response at CP and gate boundaries, not the first impulse move.

Micro-Level execution note

Internal micro levels remain active inside each CP/gate zone and will likely guide the quality of rotation during the New York open. Clean respect of those levels would support structured continuation; repeated slicing through them would favour a more volatile two-way auction.