Bitcoin’s Worst-Case Bearish Scenario by Willy Woo: BTC Could Fall to $16,000

Crypto trader and entrepreneur Willy Woo has published a tweet to comment on the current crypto market situation. He also shared his take on when the current bear market is likely to end, laying out a potential worst-case scenario and where it may push Bitcoin should it indeed happen.

His forecast about the end of the bear market coincides with the analysis shared by CryptoQuant today.

Worst-case scenario for Bitcoin and theoretical drop to $16,000

The good news is that Willy Woo believes that the selling streak by Bitcoin investors is fading out. This means, he explains, that from here on, Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways for approximately a month. A rebound to the mid-$70,000s may take place, but it would “likely be rejected,” he believes.

The key reason for this, per Woo, is that “the broader regime is heavily bearish,” meaning that liquidity is draining from both the spot and futures crypto markets. Bitcoin is unlikely to rally “when both sources of liquidity are bearish,” Woo stated. He attached a chart of the Bitcoin Flow Model to his tweet.

Woo offered the community “an educated guess,” saying that the fourth quarter of this year would be a perfect time for the bearish trend to end. As for the potential return of bullish momentum, that is likely in the first or the second quarter of 2027, according to him. But before it happens, Bitcoin could reach a “typical bear market bottom” of roughly $45,000 by Q4 this year.

Woo also viewed a potential, but perhaps not too likely, worst-case scenario that could happen to the world’s flagship cryptocurrency. If the broader global macroeconomic environment undergoes any significant negative changes, Bitcoin might collapse as low as to find support at the $16,000 level per coin.

High probability window for Bitcoin bottom named by CryptoQuant

On-chain analysis company CryptoQuant has used the historical data from the three previous Bitcoin halvings (in 2012, 2016 and 2020) in an attempt to figure out when the Bitcoin price may reverse after the 2024 April halving.

There are three options, and they point at June, September and October 2026, respectively, as a period when BTC may reach a bottom and begin rising again. This is 777-925 days post-halving historically.