ARB Technical Analysis Feb 28

ARB is maintaining its LH/LL structure under general pressure in altcoin markets; the question on the agenda is whether trend continuation with a critical support test at the $0.10 level or an upward BOS for CHoCH.

Market Structure Overview

ARB’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The price has exhibited a lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) formation in recent weeks, reinforcing its bearish character. Current price is at $0.10 with a 24-hour change of -4.90%. Trading below EMA20 ($0.11) confirms the short-term bearish structure. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, and $0.13 resistance forms a strong barrier. RSI at 33.75 is approaching the oversold zone, while the positive histogram in MACD indicates a slight bullish divergence, though the overall structure is dominated by the downtrend. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 8 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 each on 3D, and 1 support/3 resistances on 1W. These levels stand out as pivot points that will determine structural integrity. The market is moving in parallel with BTC’s downtrend, increasing risk in altcoins.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

A higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) structure is required for an uptrend. This has not formed in ARB recently; however, the positive momentum in the MACD histogram and the oversold condition in RSI could provide hope for a potential HL test. If it holds above $0.0973 support, an HL formation could begin toward $0.1079 resistance. Bullish continuation target is $0.1572 (score:25/100), but this level requires breaking EMA20 at $0.11 first. For now, bullish signals are weak and speculative.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is dominant: Decline from the last swing high at $0.1079 to LH at $0.1005, followed by an LL test at $0.0973. Current $0.10 continues the LH/LL sequence. If $0.0883 breaks, a new LL forms and the bearish target at $0.0496 (score:22/100) activates. The 24h range contraction at $0.10-$0.11 signals bearish momentum accumulation before consolidation. Note: LL continuation strengthens continuation over trend reversal.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) confirms trend change. For bearish BOS, $0.0973 swing low must break; this invalidates the last LH, extends the LL sequence, and opens the path to $0.0883. Conversely, bullish BOS comes with a close above $0.1079 swing high – this triggers CHoCH (Change of Character) and signals a shift to HL structure. $0.13 Supertrend resistance is the main threshold; breaking it targets $0.1572. In MTF, 1W resistances (around $0.1079) dominate, making upward BOS difficult. Below $0.0883, bearish momentum explodes. These levels overlap with order blocks and fair value gaps, forming high-probability reaction zones.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $0.1005 (score:66/100) – just above current price, acting as micro LH resistance. $0.1079 (score:62/100) – main bearish BOS level, strong on 1D/3D MTF. These points show seller dominance; retests create short opportunities. A break shifts the structure to bullish and triggers an EMA20 test.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $0.0973 (score:65/100) – nearby support, holding opens HL potential. $0.0883 (score:78/100) – high-quality support from 1W MTF. These levels are buyer defense zones; a break creates bearish CHoCH. With price stuck at $0.10, watch below $0.0973 – this is the trend continuation pivot.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $65,578 in downtrend (-3.35% 24h), key supports $64,316/$62,512/$60,000, resistances $65,848/$68,166/$70,589. BTC Supertrend bearish and rising dominance create pressure on altcoins like ARB. ARB is highly correlated with BTC; if BTC slips below $64,316, ARB’s $0.0883 break accelerates. Conversely, BTC BOS above $65,848 supports ARB $0.1079 retest. ARB Spot Analysis and ARB Futures Analysis are critical with BTC context – altcoin rallies come under BTC leadership. Current BTC structure strengthens ARB’s bearish scenario.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

ARB is structurally bearish in LH/LL; consolidation around $0.10 awaits BOS for direction. Bearish scenario dominant: $0.0973 break extends LL, targets $0.0496. Bullish invalidation with $0.1079 BOS, path to $0.1572. MTF resistance abundance supports downside, BTC downtrend increases altcoin risk. Traders should position with swing levels – support hold for long bias, resistance retest for short. No news, stay focused on pure price action. Structures are dynamic; monitor in real-time. (Word count: 1056)