Why Next Two Weeks Are Do or Die for Crypto Market?

The crypto market is still in fear despite recent recoveries. Many remain cautious about the industry’s future, but expert Raoul Pal is largely optimistic. He cites strong global liquidity, easing financial conditions, upcoming regulatory developments, and potential stablecoin growth, adding that the next two weeks could mark a turning point for the market.

Expert Reveals Factors That Could Drive the Next Crypto Market Rally

In an X post earlier today, crypto investor and expert Raoul Pal shared a bullish outlook on the crypto market, despite its current volatility.

The crypto market is currently facing increased pressure, especially driven by the ongoing geopolitical tensions. As CoinGape reported, both crypto and stock prices were down due to the US-Iran war. But according to Raoul Pal, several macro and industry-specific factors are coming in favor of the crypto market.

Macro and Financial Conditions

The expert noted that the global liquidity is expanding at about 10% per year. It has historically shown a strong correlation to Bitcoin and major stock indices. This indicates that the liquidity growth is providing a supportive background for the crypto market. The total US liquidity slowdown during the government shutdown has also begun accelerating. This could also be a positive catalyst for the crypto prices.

Raoul Pal stated that banks are increasing liquidity through credit creation and treasury absorption mechanisms like the eSLR. This further supports the crypto market rally. On the other hand, some believe that this week could see increased crypto market volatility. 

Incoming tax refunds are landing on bank balance sheets, boosting credit creation. The upcoming U.S. rate cuts may also increase disposable income, driving more risk-taking and investment activity.

He also noted that Financial conditions, as measured by the GMI index, are still easing. This could typically lead crypto trends by six months, creating a favorable environment for market recovery. The business cycle, which drives earnings and market risk appetite, is gaining speed, providing additional tailwinds for investor confidence.

Regulatory and Institutional Support

In key regulatory developments ahead, Raoul Pal referred to the much-awaited CLARITY Act. He stated that the crypto bill is expected to pass soon. As CoinGape reported recently, JPMorgan analysts and other key figures like Kristin Smith believe that the CLARITY Act will pass by July or mid-year. According to Pal, this regulatory clarity could unlock massive institutional flows into the crypto market.

Raoul Pal also pointed out the significant growth of the stablecoin market. Stablecoin issuance grew 50% last year and continues to accelerate. This highlights growing adoption and liquidity in the crypto ecosystem.

Importantly, the expert points to the current Trump administration as the most supportive in crypto in history. This also creates a positive environment for crypto prices to jump.

Why the Next Two Weeks Could Be a Turning Point

According to Raoul Pal, the combination of supportive government policies, returning investor confidence, and a growing adoption of crypto by banks and asset managers could create the ideal environment for a crypto market rebound.

He added that the next two weeks could be crucial as several key technical indicators are approaching a major turning point. Pal noted that the weekly DeMark indicators could form a strong base within this timeframe. This historically signals the possibility of a major trend reversal.

In addition, within the next few days, there could be major updates on the factors mentioned by Pal as the key drivers of a potential crypto market rally. Thus, he sees the upcoming weeks as crucial for the future of the crypto market.