USD/CHF steadies near 0.7940 ahead of US NFP revision

USD/CHF stabilizes around 0.7940, recovering from its lowest level since July 24.
Traders await US NFP benchmark revision due at 14:00 GMT, which is expected to show sharp downward revisions to job growth.
Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September 16-17 meeting, with a 50 bps move still seen as a possibility if the data proves weaker than feared.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) softens slightly against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/CHF pair stabilizing after a two-day decline, as the Greenback attempts to recover from seven-week lows. Traders are treading cautiously ahead of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) preliminary benchmark revisions to Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), due at 14:00 GMT. The revisions are widely expected to show that job growth over the past year was overstated — confirming that the US labor market has been cooling more sharply than initially reported.

At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading around 0.7945 during the American session, after briefly dipping to its lowest level since July 24. The modest rebound reflects a tentative recovery in the Greenback, supported by pre-event positioning and a slight bounce in US Treasury yields.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell to a seven-week low before stabilizing near 97.50 at the time of writing. However, the index remains under pressure from a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook, with markets expecting the central bank to prioritize maximum employment over price stability within its dual mandate, following last week’s softer-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

According to most estimates, the upcoming NFP revisions could subtract between 475,000 and 1 million jobs from previously published payroll figures for the 12 months through March 2025. The expected downgrade stems from more comprehensive tax-based data, suggesting that earlier readings had overstated labor market strength due to statistical modeling limitations. With recent indicators already pointing to a slowdown, today’s revision is seen as the final confirmation — adding weight to expectations that the Fed will cut rates at its September 16-17 meeting. While a 25 basis point move is now widely anticipated, some market participants are also positioning for a more aggressive 50 bps cut, should the data signal a deeper-than-feared labor market correction.

Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) due Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday for fresh clues on inflation dynamics. Stronger-than-expected data could temper market expectations for aggressive Fed easing, while a softer print would likely reinforce the case for a larger rate cut. On the Swiss side, attention turns to Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel’s speech on Wednesday. In a recent interview, Schlegel noted that the hurdle to reintroducing negative interest rates remains “high,” though the central bank stands ready to act if necessary.

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announces the preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series, which can lead to a revision as well for the Nonfarm Payrolls data in the twelve months to March. This preliminary revision could have implications for employment figures for the rest of the year.