Can Solana use USDC beating USDT in ‘Adjusted Transaction Volume’ to outperform Ethereum?

The stablecoin market is showing that growth often matters more than the outcome itself. 

On paper, Tether [USDT] remains dominant, making up over 55% of the $320 billion stablecoin market. This gives Layer-1 networks a real boost, since so much USDT is stored on-chain. In other words, having a big stash of USDT on-chain gives these networks a subtle “technical edge” when it comes to capital flows.

A closer look, however, reveals that Tron [TRX] and Ethereum [ETH] alone account for 90% of the $183 billion USDT market, putting them in a prime spot to lead key growth areas like A.I., NFTs, and RWA. Against this backdrop, a recent report highlighting Circle’s USDC overtaking USDT in “adjusted volume” naturally stirred things up.

For context, adjusted volume tracks transfers that look like real money moving, such as payments or funds moving between exchanges. High volume naturally shows that people and institutions are actively using stablecoins on-chain for everyday transactions, rather than letting them sit idle in wallets.

In this light, USDC now makes up 64% of the volume between the two stablecoins. According to the chart above, USDC has moved about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume this year, topping USDT’s $1.3 trillion. In fact, this is the first time since 2019 that USDC has overtaken USDT, highlighting a shift in which stablecoin is driving real on-chain activity. 

Against this backdrop, it’s no surprise that prediction markets are getting bullish on USDC. In fact, according to Polymarket, markets are pricing $200 billion for USDT and $100 billion for USDC by year-end.

Technically, that translates to just +8% growth for USDT versus +23% for USDC – A sign of strong confidence that USDC will keep gaining traction in real-world usage.

USDC minting surges on Solana, sparking a SOL vs. ETH debate

Shifts in stablecoin flows directly affect on-chain liquidity across Layer-1 networks. 

In this context, USDC’s high transaction volume is raising questions about how this could impact L1s, especially after Circle minted an extra $2 billion USDC on Solana [SOL] just this week. This caught the attention of analysts at AMBCrypto.

Moreover, this development is particularly noteworthy because Solana’s transaction volume is nearly 30x greater than Ethereum’s [ETH]. Combined with the fact that USDC is seeing stronger on-chain usage than its main competitor, USDT, SOL might just have a “structural advantage” that could translate into real technical outperformance.

Notably, the timing couldn’t be better. 

So far in 2026, the SOL/ETH ratio has stayed range-bound around its 0.04 opening price – Up just 0.26%. This resilience in a risk-off market matters, especially when you consider that the ratio ended 2025 with a 26% correction – The biggest setback since the 2022 bear market. Against this backdrop, Solana’s transactional edge over Ethereum begins to hold weight.

From a technical perspective, nearly 54% of Solana’s on-chain liquidity sits in USDC, with supply increasing by 2.26% just this week alone. Since USDC has dominated transaction volume so far this year, this could translate into stronger technical performance for SOL, potentially positioning the network to outperform Ethereum in the coming months. Especially as both stablecoin flows and network usage continue to favor it.

Final Summary

• For the first time since 2019, USDC leads in adjusted transaction volume, now making up 64% of total stablecoin flows.
• With 54% of its on-chain liquidity in USDC and transactions nearly 30x Ethereum’s, Solana may leverage this stablecoin dominance to achieve technical outperformance.