Will CLARITY Act Pass in 2026? Galaxy’s Alex Thorn Warns April Deadline Is Critical

The CLARITY Act faces growing uncertainty in Washington, with Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn warning the bill must clear committee by April. Thorn said failure to meet that deadline would sharply reduce the chances of passage in 2026. His warning follows comments from Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirming further delays as lawmakers debate stablecoin rules and legislative priorities.

CLARITY Act Timeline Pressure Builds in Senate

According to Alex Thorn, the CLARITY Act must reach the Senate floor by early May to remain viable this year. However, he said the Senate Banking Committee must first approve the bill before the end of April. If that slips, Thorn said the probability of passage in 2026 becomes extremely low.

As CoinGape reported, Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged the crypto bill is unlikely to pass by April. Instead, the chamber currently prioritizes the SAVE America Act. As a result, the crowded Senate schedule now competes with the CLARITY Act timeline.

Thorn said floor time continues shrinking each day the committee delay persists. Lawmakers now face increasing pressure to resolve disputes quickly.

Odds and Stablecoin Reward Debate

Prediction markets show declining confidence in near-term passage. Polymarket data indicates the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year has dropped 9% to 56%.

Source: Polymarket

Kalshi currently places the odds at 30% before June and 7% before May. However, the calendar challenge does not stand alone. Thorn said policy disagreements also threaten to slow the bill further. Those disagreements currently center on stablecoin reward structures.

Source: Kalshi

The most visible dispute involves whether stablecoin issuers should offer rewards or yield to users. Rep. French Hill said stablecoin yield should be banned for the CLARITY Act to advance in the Senate.

Traditional banking groups warn that those incentives could draw deposits away from regulated banks. Meanwhile, crypto companies argue rewards expand stablecoin utility in payments and financial services.

According to Thorn, the rewards debate currently represents the primary obstacle preventing progress. However, he suggested the dispute may not be the final hurdle. Instead, it may simply represent the current point where negotiations stalled.

Lawmakers acknowledge compromise will likely influence the bill’s outcome. Senator Angela Alsobrooks said both banking interests and crypto advocates may need to compromise. Additionally, White House crypto adviser and Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal slammed banks over CLARITY Act delays.

DeFi Could Lead to New Conflicts

Thorn said several unresolved matters could surface after the stablecoin debate concludes. These include decentralized finance oversight, protections for blockchain developers, and the division of regulatory authority. Disputes between agencies such as the SEC could also complicate negotiations.

Lawyer Jake Chervinsky also said banks focus on more than stablecoin yield incentives. He argued that access to stablecoin liquidity within decentralized finance platforms represents another concern.

Earlier drafts illustrate the political challenges involved. The Senate Banking Committee released a discussion draft in January called the ANS framework. According to Thorn, Democrats did not directly contribute to that draft despite attempts at bipartisan language.