TD Cowen: The window for deliberation on the US crypto bill may be extended to the August recess; if it fails to pass, it may be postponed to 2027.

PANews reported on March 18 that, according to The Block, investment bank TD Cowen stated that the window for passing the US crypto market structure bill may extend into the August recess, breaking previous expectations that legislation needed to be completed before the Easter recess. Jaret Seiberg, Managing Director of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, pointed out that the Easter recess is not a critical juncture; legislative work can continue before and after the recess, and with the primaries over, some members of Congress will have greater flexibility in negotiations.

Seiberg believes the August recess is the last meaningful window for legislation, as Congress will only convene for 12 days in September and 2 days in October, just enough to handle spending and defense authorization bills. He also reiterated that if control of Congress changes after the 2026 midterm elections, the bill could be delayed until 2027. It is anticipated that the House of Representatives may shift to Democratic control, at which point Democrats may choose to postpone the bill until 2027 to gain greater influence. Currently, the crypto bill is stalled due to opposition from the banking industry to stablecoin yields and Democrats' pursuit of conflict-of-interest clauses for senior government officials, but negotiations are reportedly close to a compromise. Seiberg stated that if the bill fails to pass in 2026, the SEC will provide the necessary regulatory action for the crypto industry.