This article attempts to clarify the causes of the current downward trend in cryptocurrencies and determine what necessary conditions are needed for the market to regain bullish sentiment.This article attempts to clarify the causes of the current downward trend in cryptocurrencies and determine what necessary conditions are needed for the market to regain bullish sentiment.

The crypto market plummeted, and more than 300,000 people were liquidated: the core reasons you need to know

2025/02/26 13:51

Author: Alea Research

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

In yesterday's report , we explored several structural changes that have occurred in the cryptocurrency market over the past few months. Today, before the US market opens, the total market value of the crypto space has fallen by nearly 9%, and Bitcoin has fallen by more than 7% in the past 24 hours. Although Bitcoin rebounded to the $89,000 mark after hitting a new low above $87,000, the current trend has shown signs of fatigue.

The crypto market plummeted, and more than 300,000 people were liquidated: the core reasons you need to know

In today’s report, we will once again take a look at market trends, try to clarify the causes of the current downward trend in cryptocurrencies, and determine what conditions are necessary for the market to regain bullish sentiment.

Current Macro and Crypto Environment

Over the past year, the overall trend of the crypto market has been highly correlated with Bitcoin. Starting from the second quarter of 2024, Bitcoin and altcoins entered a period of sideways fluctuations for about half a year. With the arrival of the catalyst of the US election in November, the entire crypto market rose almost across the board. However, this situation has taken a sharp turn for the worse recently, as evidenced by the rapid divergence of the trends of Bitcoin and altcoins.

The crypto market plummeted, and more than 300,000 people were liquidated: the core reasons you need to know

There is no clear trigger for this sell-off in the cryptocurrency sector. We have discussed the Libra token crash and the recent Bybit attack in detail in our member newsletters and emails. The chain reaction caused by the Libra token has hit the Solana ecosystem hard, and the SOL token has plummeted by nearly 45% in the past month. The Bybit incident is now basically under control, and the exchange claims to have raised enough ETH to fill a funding gap of about $1.4 billion.

There was even good news yesterday: Castle Securities announced that it would increase its layout in the encryption field, which may be related to the increasingly clear regulatory environment.

Previously, Robinhood disclosed that one-third of its fourth-quarter revenue came from crypto services, and it plans to continue to increase its investment in this field, but the market reacted coldly to the good news of the entry of such traditional financial institutions.

The crypto market plummeted, and more than 300,000 people were liquidated: the core reasons you need to know

 Citadel Securities announces plans to increase its investment in cryptocurrency market making

The current market may pay more attention to news from the US government, and be reserved about any policy moves that do not reach the level of "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" (SBR), and even regard it as an opportunity to sell "all the good news is out". This tendency can be seen from the market's reaction to the statements and even executive orders of President Trump, David Sacks, the head of encryption and artificial intelligence affairs, and Senator Cynthia Lummis on cryptocurrencies.

The current market volatility may be largely related to Trump's policies and the unexpected reactions they have triggered. In some ways, the former president's fulfillment of his campaign promises is polarized: some policies related to the core concerns of the market have not been fulfilled, while other areas have been advanced beyond expectations. This contradiction is exacerbating market uncertainty.

1. Tariff policy

Trump has changed his mind many times since taking office: first, he announced additional tariffs on Canada and Mexico, then suspended the implementation; then implemented a new metal tariff policy, affecting both Canada and Mexico; recently, he announced that he would eventually impose comprehensive tariffs on both countries. This practice of changing orders every day not only exacerbates market uncertainty, but is also likely to lead to a policy credit dilemma of "crying wolf".

2. Immigration Policy

The Trump administration has so far deported fewer illegal immigrants than previous administrations, which could be a positive sign for markets, as large and rapid deportations could cause market turmoil in labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture, residential construction and services.

3. Foreign Policy

The Trump administration has shown a tendency to distance itself from Europe and to negotiate directly with Russia, bypassing regional countries such as Ukraine. Although this move may not be a major negative factor that triggers a unilateral market reaction, it did catch some observers off guard.

The market has always hated uncertainty, and the Trump administration has fully demonstrated its ability to create uncertainty in its first month in office. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks have underperformed European and Chinese stocks, and the Nasdaq index has almost fallen into negative territory. This may reasonably explain why cryptocurrencies performed poorly in the first quarter: although Michael Saylor's "strategic hoarding" brought liquidity support and ETF fund inflows, Bitcoin still remained at a relatively high level, the overall crypto market performance still lagged far behind.

The crypto market plummeted, and more than 300,000 people were liquidated: the core reasons you need to know

The goal has changed drastically, with more emphasis on debt and less on stocks?

The weak performance of both cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks may be closely related to the Trump administration's policy focus shifting to lowering bond yields rather than boosting the stock market (not to mention Bitcoin prices, in fact, the White House pays little attention to the overall performance of the crypto market). If lowering bond yields is regarded as a measure of policy success, then the current situation may be more optimistic than judging simply by stock market performance.

Since Trump took office, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen significantly. This indicator can be used as an alternative benchmark to assess the long-term resilience of the US economy: lower interest rates help reduce the cost of capital for home buyers, large companies and other groups.

The crypto market plummeted, and more than 300,000 people were liquidated: the core reasons you need to know

Under the current macro landscape, the US government needs to strike a balance between short-term interests and long-term goals, that is, the stock market frenzy may not meet the success criteria set by the Trump team. Over time, the market may gradually adapt to the unconventional operations of this administration. On the positive side, if regulatory barriers can be substantially eliminated (as DOGE metaphorically implies), more economic vitality may be released. However, in the short and medium term, large-scale layoffs and budget cuts by the federal government may have a contractionary effect on the economy and intercept some of the funds that could have been injected into the market.

Related Links:

Current Crypto Market Structure Newsletter

Citadel $BTC Tweet

Jim Bianco Bond Market Tweet

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Unprecedented Surge: Gold Price Hits Astounding New Record High

Unprecedented Surge: Gold Price Hits Astounding New Record High

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Inflation Concerns: Persistent inflation in major economies erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies. Consequently, investors seek assets like gold that historically maintain their value against rising prices. Central Bank Policies: Many central banks globally are accumulating gold at a significant pace. This institutional demand provides a strong underlying support for the gold price. Furthermore, expectations around interest rate cuts in the future also make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. These factors collectively paint a picture of a cautious market, where investors are looking for stability amidst a turbulent economic landscape. Understanding Gold’s Appeal in Today’s Market For centuries, gold has held a unique position in the financial world. Its latest record-breaking performance reinforces its status as a critical component of a diversified portfolio. Gold offers a tangible asset that is not subject to the same digital vulnerabilities or regulatory shifts that can impact cryptocurrencies. While digital assets offer exciting growth potential, gold provides a foundational stability that appeals to a broad spectrum of investors. Moreover, the finite supply of gold, much like Bitcoin’s capped supply, contributes to its perceived value. The current market environment, characterized by economic uncertainty and fluctuating currency values, only amplifies gold’s intrinsic benefits. It serves as a reliable hedge when other asset classes, including stocks and sometimes even crypto, face downward pressure. How Does This Record Gold Price Impact Investors? A soaring gold price naturally raises questions for investors. For those who already hold gold, this represents a significant validation of their investment strategy. For others, it might spark renewed interest in this ancient asset. Benefits for Investors: Portfolio Diversification: Gold often moves independently of other asset classes, offering crucial diversification benefits. Wealth Preservation: It acts as a robust store of value, protecting wealth against inflation and economic downturns. Liquidity: Gold markets are highly liquid, allowing for relatively easy buying and selling. Challenges and Considerations: Opportunity Cost: Investing in gold means capital is not allocated to potentially higher-growth assets like equities or certain cryptocurrencies. Volatility: While often seen as stable, gold prices can still experience significant fluctuations, as evidenced by its rapid ascent. Considering the current financial climate, understanding gold’s role can help refine your overall investment approach. Looking Ahead: The Future of the Gold Price What does the future hold for the gold price? While no one can predict market movements with absolute certainty, current trends and expert analyses offer some insights. 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It serves as a powerful reminder of gold’s role as a safe haven asset, a hedge against inflation, and a vital component for portfolio diversification. While digital assets continue to innovate and capture headlines, gold’s consistent performance during times of uncertainty highlights its timeless value. Whether you are a seasoned investor or new to the market, understanding the drivers behind gold’s ascent is crucial for making informed financial decisions in an ever-evolving world. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: What does a record-high gold price signify for the broader economy? A record-high gold price often indicates underlying economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and geopolitical instability. Investors tend to flock to gold as a safe haven when they lose confidence in traditional currencies or other asset classes. Q2: How does gold compare to cryptocurrencies as a safe-haven asset? Both gold and some cryptocurrencies (like Bitcoin) are often considered safe havens. Gold has a centuries-long history of retaining value during crises, offering tangibility. Cryptocurrencies, while newer, offer decentralization and can be less susceptible to traditional financial system failures, but they also carry higher volatility and regulatory risks. Q3: Should I invest in gold now that its price is at a record high? Investing at a record high requires careful consideration. While the price might continue to climb due to ongoing market conditions, there’s also a risk of a correction. It’s crucial to assess your personal financial goals, risk tolerance, and consider diversifying your portfolio rather than putting all your capital into a single asset. Q4: What are the main factors that influence the gold price? The gold price is primarily influenced by global economic uncertainty, inflation rates, interest rate policies by central banks, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and geopolitical tensions. Demand from jewelers and industrial uses also play a role, but investment and central bank demand are often the biggest drivers. Q5: Is gold still a good hedge against inflation? Historically, gold has proven to be an effective hedge against inflation. When the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, gold tends to hold its value or even increase, making it an attractive asset for preserving wealth during inflationary periods. To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Bitcoin’s price action. This post Unprecedented Surge: Gold Price Hits Astounding New Record High first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
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