Bitcoin is entering a critical week. With the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to deliver his final Jackson Hole keynote as Fed chief this Friday, markets are bracing for volatility. The speech comes against a backdrop of a slowing labor market, persistent tariff-driven inflation, and a divided Federal Open Market Committee. Traders are asking the real question: will Powell’s words trigger a deeper correction in Bitcoin, potentially dragging it down to $50,000?
Why Powell’s Speech Matters for Bitcoin Price Prediction?
Bitcoin has matured into a macro-sensitive asset. Interest rate expectations, inflation readings, and central bank guidance now directly influence its trajectory. Powell used Jackson Hole in 2024 to pre-announce rate cuts, and if he signals a similar move this year, it could shape risk sentiment across global markets.
The dilemma is clear: inflation has been creeping higher again, with PCE rising to 2.6% in June, while job creation has nearly stalled. If Powell acknowledges weakness in the labor market and hints at a September rate cut, liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin could benefit short-term. On the other hand, if he emphasizes inflation risks and delays easing, the selloff already underway in BTC price may deepen.
Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech is expected to be his last as Federal Reserve chair, since his term ends in May 2026 and President Donald Trump has said he won’t reappoint him. Trump originally gave Powell the role in 2017. Powell’s position as a Fed governor runs until 2028, but he hasn’t confirmed whether he’ll stay on after stepping down as chair.
What the Daily Bitcoin Price Chart Says?
Looking at Bitcoin’s daily chart, price action has turned decisively bearish since mid-August. After failing to hold above 120,000, BTC price has broken through its mid-Bollinger Band support and now hovers near 113,000. The lower Bollinger Band sits at 111,500, which aligns with a key short-term support level.
If Bitcoin price closes the week below 112,500, the chart sets up for a larger downside move. The next visible supports are layered around 105,000 and 100,000. A break beneath 100,000 would open the path to 95,000, with extreme panic potentially driving the market as low as 80,000–85,000.
The $50,000 level may sound extreme, but it represents a capitulation scenario if Powell’s message sparks risk aversion and the labor market weakens further in upcoming data releases. Historically, Bitcoin has retraced 50–60% in tightening-driven macro shocks, so it cannot be ruled out.
Macro Triggers That Could Decide Bitcoin’s Direction
- Jackson Hole Speech (Aug 23): If Powell signals rate cuts, Bitcoin could rebound toward 118,000–120,000. If not, the slide continues.
- PCE Inflation (Aug 29): A hotter reading would justify Powell’s caution, reinforcing bearish pressure.
- August Jobs Report (Sept 5): Weak job growth would validate dovish calls inside the Fed, possibly rescuing Bitcoin from a deeper drop.
- CPI Release (Sept 11): Inflation data will confirm whether tariffs are creating persistent price pressures.
Together, these events will shape whether Bitcoin stabilizes above 110,000 or begins cascading toward lower support zones.
Could Bitcoin Crash to $50,000?
A drop to $50,000 is not the base case, but it represents a tail-risk scenario tied to macro shocks. For BTC to collapse that far, several conditions would likely need to align:
- Powell signals prolonged higher rates.
- Inflation accelerates further into autumn.
- Equity markets sell off sharply, dragging crypto with them.
- Long-leveraged positions unwind, triggering forced liquidations.
For now, the immediate range to watch is 111,500 support versus 118,000 resistance. A close below 111,500 by the weekend could accelerate selling into the 105,000–100,000 zone, keeping the risk of a broader meltdown alive.
Bitcoin traders should be laser-focused on Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks this Friday. His tone on inflation and rate cuts could either offer BTC a relief bounce or set the stage for another leg down. While a crash to $50,000 is an extreme but possible scenario, the more realistic test in the near term lies in the 100,000–105,000 zone.
If Powell signals patience and no imminent cuts, Bitcoin could face its harshest test of 2025 yet.
$BTC, $Bitcoin
Source: https://cryptoticker.io/en/will-bitcoin-price-crash-to-dollar50000-after-this-friday/
