Yakovenko: Quantum Computers Could Break Bitcoin Security in 5 Years

TLDR

• Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko warns that quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s security in five years.
• Yakovenko highlights the vulnerability of Bitcoin’s cryptography to Shor’s algorithm used by quantum computers.
• The Bitcoin network could be exposed due to its reliance on Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA).
• Approximately 25-30% of Bitcoin, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s early holdings, are at risk from quantum attacks.
• Bitcoin’s public key exposure during transactions could allow quantum computers to exploit vulnerabilities.

Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana, has raised alarms over Bitcoin’s vulnerability to quantum computing. Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, he suggested there is a “50/50” chance that within five years, quantum computers could crack Bitcoin’s cryptographic security measures. The concern centers on quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm, which could undermine Bitcoin’s defense against attacks.

Quantum Threats Could Break Bitcoin’s Security Measures

Bitcoin’s security relies on Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) to protect private keys. Yakovenko warned that a quantum computer could use Shor’s algorithm to break this system. He said,

The idea of upgrading Bitcoin’s cryptography has sparked debate. While some experts, like Yakovenko, urge immediate action, others believe the threat remains distant. For instance, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, suggested that quantum computing remains a far-off issue. However, he did mention that making Bitcoin quantum-safe is “relatively simple.”

Bitcoin’s security could be further compromised due to the structure of its cryptography. The network uses the secp256k1 curve to secure private keys. This makes it particularly vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm, which could potentially reveal private keys from public ones in polynomial time.

The Urgency of a Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Network

The potential risks of quantum computing in Bitcoin are significant. Around 25-30% of all Bitcoin, over 4 million BTC, are stored in legacy addresses. These addresses, known as Pay-to-Public-Key, are especially exposed since their public keys are visible on the blockchain. In the event of a quantum breakthrough, these exposed public keys could be targeted, putting billions of dollars at risk.

Moreover, Bitcoin transactions themselves increase exposure. When users initiate transactions, their public keys are revealed for about 10 minutes. If a quantum computer becomes powerful enough, it could exploit this brief exposure to derive private keys and reroute funds before transactions finalize.

The discussion about quantum threats has divided the Bitcoin community. While some argue the risk is real, others downplay it, stating that quantum threats are not immediate. Bitcoin Core contributors like Peter Todd and Luke Dashjr remain unconvinced about the urgency of quantum computing risks.

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