GOP districts now a 'tossup' as MAGA cools on Trump

With the midterms looming and Republicans projected to take major losses, the party is doing everything it can to shore up support. But in the face of that, there is growing concern within the GOP that President Donald Trump is an “albatross” dragging the party down as MAGA enthusiasm cools.

An example of this cooling, according to the Times, can be found in New York’s 17th congressional district, a swing seat that could play a key role in determining the balance of power in the House of Representatives after November. To succeed in the midterms, says the Times, Trump must turn out the vote in districts like the 17th: “However, it is proving difficult to energise the MAGA base when the president himself is not on the ballot.”

The Times points to a conversation with Mahopac resident and retired railworker James Sedlmayer, who on one hand supports the president, saying that Trump Derangement Syndrome is a “real disease,” but on the other admits that he’s “less likely to vote this November.”

This sort of midterm apathy is a real problem for Republicans who currently enjoy a slim six-seat majority in the House. That means that if Democrats flip just three seats, the balance of power in Washington will shake up dramatically. And districts like New York’s 17th make that appear likely. As the Times points out, “This year, the Cook political report altered its prediction for New York’s 17th congressional district from ‘lean Republican’ to ‘tossup.’”

Highlighting the district’s importance in this fight was Trump’s appearance there in May, when he visited to campaign for Representative Mike Lawler (R-NY). Lawler has emerged as a staunch supporter of Trump’s war, telling constituents, “I don’t care if I’m paying more for gas.” Trump himself has declared that he doesn’t think “even a little bit” about the strain the war puts on American finances.

This message doesn’t seem to have landed with the voters the GOP most needs to persuade, as “most swing voters appear unenthused by the Iran war, with just 26 percent of independents supportive of the conflict compared to 79 percent of Republicans.” Meanwhile, Trump himself “has a net approval rating of minus 24, according to a recent YouGov poll for CBS, a figure that is worse than Biden at his lowest ebb.”

“He’s an albatross. There’s no doubt about it,” says Douglas Heye, a political strategist and former communications director of the Republican National Committee. “Trump not only has low approval ratings, he focuses our attention on things that aren’t important to voters. Voters don’t want to hear about reflecting pools and art institutions and arches and things like that. They want to hear, ‘here’s what we’re doing about costs, here’s how we’re going to fix the problem in Iran.’”

The consequences of his plunging popularity could be dire for Trump’s agenda. As the Times explains, “Losing control of the House would mean the second half of his final term becoming bogged down in Democrat impeachment proceedings and subpoenas for congressional appearances. Losing control of the Senate would allow the Democrats to block Trump’s future Supreme Court nominees and cabinet appointments.”

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