Bitcoin Faces Pressure as Volatility Builds

Bitcoin continues to struggle at the top of its short-term range, with every recovery attempt getting sold near intraday highs. The pressure is being amplified by macro uncertainty, especially growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike later this month. BTC tried to bounce on Monday, but sellers quickly stepped back in, keeping price action heavy. Trader CrypNuevo noted that Bitcoin could remain range-bound between $80,000 and $99,000 for now, warning that a clean break below $80,000 could open the door toward the $73,000 area. Analyst Aksel Kibar echoed the cautious tone, pointing out that Bitcoin is sitting in an extreme low-volatility setup, which often precedes a sharp directional move. On the upside, he sees $100,000 back in play if BTC can reclaim $94,600, while on the downside he expects strong demand to emerge between $73,700 and $76,500. Traders are closely watching the Bank of Japan’s Dec. 19 meeting, as previous rate hikes since 2024 have coincided with more than 20% drawdowns in Bitcoin and broader crypto markets.

Despite the choppy price action, institutional flows are showing resilience. Crypto exchange-traded products recorded roughly $864 million in inflows last week, marking the third straight week of positive flows. The United States dominated demand, followed by Germany and Canada, while Switzerland saw modest outflows. Bitcoin products led with over $520 million in inflows, while short-Bitcoin products saw outflows, suggesting improving sentiment. Ether also attracted strong demand, adding roughly $338 million and pushing year-to-date inflows sharply higher. Solana and XRP continued to gain traction as well, reflecting selective appetite for large-cap altcoins even as risk remains elevated.

On the regulatory and adoption front, JPMorgan took a major step deeper into tokenized finance by launching its first tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, signaling growing confidence from traditional finance in public blockchain infrastructure. At the same time, the UK confirmed plans to bring crypto firms fully under financial regulations by 2027, while progress on US crypto market structure legislation has been delayed until 2026. The regulatory uncertainty, combined with macro pressure, weighed on markets late Monday, triggering a sharp sell-off that wiped roughly $150 billion from total crypto market capitalization.

Market  Outlook

The broader crypto market remains defensive, with Bitcoin struggling to reclaim key resistance levels and macro risks keeping traders cautious. While institutional inflows suggest long-term confidence is intact, short-term rallies are likely to face selling until BTC can reclaim the mid-$90,000s with conviction. Volatility remains compressed, and a larger move appears close, with downside risks still present if key supports fail.

Bitcoin bounced from its rising trendline on Monday, showing that buyers are still active at lower levels, but the recovery quickly ran into selling near the 20-day EMA around $90,720. With the 20-day EMA starting to roll over and the RSI sitting in bearish territory, the short-term edge remains with the sellers. If Bitcoin slips and closes below the uptrend line, downside pressure could accelerate, dragging price toward $84,000 and possibly down to the November 21 low near $80,600. On the other hand, a strong rebound that pushes BTC back above the 20-day EMA would signal renewed demand. In that case, a move toward the 50-day SMA near $95,985 becomes likely, although sellers are expected to defend the area between the 50-day average and the $100,000 psychological level.

Ether managed to push above its 20-day EMA at $3,106, but the long upper wick on the daily candle shows that sellers are still active on rallies. Bears will try to pull ETH back below the $2,907 level, and if that happens, the pair could slide into the $2,716 to $2,623 support zone. This keeps the near-term structure fragile. However, if Ether finds support and breaks back above the $3,350 level, it would suggest that the recent sell-off may be losing steam. Such a move could open the door for a recovery toward $3,658 and later $3,918.

BNB’s tight consolidation has broken to the downside, giving bears a slight edge for now. Sellers will look to press the price toward the key $791 support. If that level fails, the downtrend could extend toward $730. A sharp bounce from $791, followed by a move above the 20-day EMA near $888, would improve the outlook and could keep BNB trading in a range between $791 and $1,020 for a while.

BTC remains under pressure below the 20-day EMA, with downside risk toward $84,000–$80,600 unless bulls reclaim $91,000. ETH needs to hold above $2,900 and break $3,350 to confirm a short-term bottom; otherwise, deeper supports remain in play. BNB is testing key support near $791, and traders should watch for either a breakdown toward $730 or a rebound that pushes price back into a broader range.

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