Mizuho Bank: Gemini's stock price decline may have already factored in the impact of executive departures; maintains target price of $26.
PANews reported on February 20th that, according to The Block, Mizuho Bank analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins stated in a report on Wednesday that Gemini's stock price is currently near all-time lows, but much of the recent volatility may already be priced in. While the departures of Gemini's COO, CFO, and CLO were disappointing, the stock price may have already reflected these negative factors. Mizuho Bank reiterated its "outperform" rating on Gemini and its price target of $26.
Gemini's preliminary revenue range is $165 million to $175 million, slightly higher than Mizuho Bank's median forecast of $168 million. Adjusted EBITDA was weaker than expected, at approximately -$257 million to -$267 million, compared to a previous forecast of -$224 million. Analysts believe that Gemini's recently announced cost-cutting measures, including laying off approximately 25% of its workforce and exiting the UK, EU, and Australian markets, will help it achieve profitability.
Mizuho Bank maintains its valuation of Gemini at 7 times its projected 2027 revenue, keeping its price target at $26. In an optimistic scenario with strong monthly transaction user growth and a rapid recovery in profit margins, the share price could approach its peer valuation multiple, with a price target of $43. In a pessimistic scenario with slow user growth and a challenging operating environment, the price target is $8. Gemini's current share price is approximately $5.90, down 43% in the past 30 days.
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