ADA Drops To $0.2625 as Tariff Shock Offsets Grayscale Boost

• Cardano tests $0.2625 as Grayscale increases ADA allocation to 20.34% in Smart Contract Fund, up from 18.5% in January.
• Trump announces global tariff hike to 15% from 10% effective immediately, pressuring risk assets including crypto.
• Price breaks below 0.236 Fibonacci level at $0.2682 with RSI at 38.71, approaching oversold territory.

Cardano price today trades near $0.2625, down 3.35% in the past 24 hours as the token tests critical Fibonacci support following President Trump’s announcement of a global tariff increase. The move comes as Grayscale raised Cardano’s share in its Smart Contract Fund to 20.34%, signaling institutional confidence despite retail selling pressure.

Grayscale Boosts Cardano Allocation To 20.34%

Despite the bearish price action, Grayscale has increased Cardano’s share in its Smart Contract Fund to 20.34%, up from approximately 18.5% in January 2026. This marks a repeated increase that confirms Cardano’s position as the third most important asset in the fund, after Solana and Ethereum.

The increase is not a small adjustment. It represents a long-term institutional approach to Cardano while most retail investors focus on short-term price moves. Because the fund follows fixed rebalancing rules, Grayscale must buy more ADA during rebalancing periods, providing structural buying pressure regardless of market sentiment.

The allocation increase is happening at a time when Bitcoin and Ethereum are gaining strong institutional traction through spot ETFs and traditional finance adoption. Cardano joining this group of assets receiving sustained institutional attention is significant, even as price remains under pressure from broader macro headwinds.

Price Breaks Below 0.236 Fibonacci Support

On the daily chart, Cardano has broken below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.2682 and is testing the 0 Fibonacci level at $0.2193. The chart shows multiple Fibonacci levels overhead: 0.382 at $0.2985, 0.5 at $0.3230, 0.618 at $0.3475, 0.786 at $0.3823, and 1 at $0.4267.

The chart shows:

• Clean breakdown below 0.236 Fibonacci at $0.2682
• RSI at 38.71, approaching oversold but not yet extreme
• All major EMAs far overhead as resistance
• $0.2193 as critical support at 0 Fibonacci level

Cardano dropped from above $0.95 in September to a low near $0.22 in February, marking a 77% correction. The current consolidation near $0.2625 is testing whether the February low holds or if the tariff shock triggers another leg lower. Breaking below $0.2682 removes the first major Fibonacci support and exposes the $0.2193 demand zone.

A daily close above $0.2682 would reclaim the 0.236 Fibonacci level and place $0.2985 back in range. Until that happens, the structure remains decisively bearish with sellers defending every bounce attempt.

Trump Tariff Hike To 15% Pressures Risk Assets

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would increase global tariffs to 15% from 10%, according to CNBC reports on Saturday. His remarks came one day after the Supreme Court struck down a broad swath of the president’s trade agenda.

In a Truth Social post, Trump stated that the new tariffs will be “effective immediately.” He also warned that additional levies would follow. The announcement sent shockwaves through risk asset markets, with crypto particularly vulnerable given its correlation to global liquidity conditions.

Higher tariffs typically reduce global trade flows, tighten financial conditions, and reduce risk appetite across markets. Crypto assets, sitting at the far end of the risk spectrum, tend to sell off sharply when macro conditions deteriorate. The timing of the announcement compounds the pressure on Cardano, which was already struggling with weak adoption metrics.

Hourly Chart Shows Critical Support Test

The 1-hour chart reveals Cardano breaking below the $0.2677 horizontal support that has held since mid-February. Supertrend sits at $0.2677, now acting as resistance after flipping bearish. Parabolic SAR at $0.2701 marks immediate overhead resistance.

The structure shows:

• Clean breakdown below $0.2677 support zone
• Supertrend and SAR both bearish, confirming momentum shift
• $0.2503 as next major support if selling continues

Buyers attempted to defend the $0.2677 support multiple times over the past week, but the combination of weak fundamentals, institutional selling, and the Trump tariff shock overwhelmed demand. The breakdown exposes $0.2600 psychological support and eventually $0.2503 if selling accelerates.

A reclaim of $0.2677 would flip the Supertrend bullish and place $0.2701 back in range. Without that reversal, price is vulnerable to a retest of the February lows near $0.22.

Outlook: Will Cardano Go Up?

The next move depends on whether ADA can hold $0.2600 and reclaim $0.2677.

• Bullish case: A close above $0.2677 with volume would flip the Supertrend and place $0.2682 Fibonacci support back in range as Grayscale accumulation continues. Reclaiming $0.2985 confirms trend reversal.
• Bearish case: A breakdown below $0.2600 exposes $0.2503, with further downside toward $0.2193 if Trump tariff impact deepens. Losing $0.2193 retests the February lows near $0.22.