Standard Chartered still expects the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, which should translate into around $1 trillion in new Treasury bill demand, the bank said in a Monday report.

As of early 2026, the total stablecoin market capitalization is roughly $300-$320 billion.

"This will result in c. $0.8-$1.0 trillion of fresh demand for T-bills (for use as reserves) from stablecoin issuers over that period," wrote Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research, and U.S. rates strategist John Davies.

Combined with $1-$1.2 trillion in projected Federal Reserve buying, total new T-bill demand could hit about $2.2 trillion through 2028, the report said. That compares with roughly $1.3 trillion in net new supply if bills’ share of total debt remains unchanged, implying a potential shortfall of $0.9 trillion.

Stablecoin issuers such as Tether and Circle (CRCL) have become major buyers of short-term U.S. government debt, holding tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bills as reserves backing tokens such as USDT and USDC.

Tether alone has disclosed T-bill holdings that rival those of mid-sized sovereign investors, while Circle also keeps a significant share of its reserves in short-dated Treasuries via money market funds.

As the stablecoin market grows, issuers typically park new inflows into T-bills to earn yield while maintaining liquidity, effectively channeling crypto-driven capital into U.S. government financing and reinforcing demand at the front end of the yield curve.

The Treasury said in its February 4 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) that it “is monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury bills and growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector,” a trend Standard Chartered expects to intensify.

The analysts said the projected excess demand gives Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent scope to lift T-bills’ share of issuance. Raising that share by 2.5 percentage points over three years would create about $0.9 trillion in additional bill supply, offsetting the gap.

Reallocating that amount from longer-dated bonds could effectively suspend 30-year auctions for three years and ease upward pressure on long-term yields, according to the report.

While not its base case, the bank expects the 10-year yield to reach 4.6% by end-2026, as the analysts warned of rising risks of front-end scarcity.

Stablecoin growth has recently stalled just above $300 billion, up from $238 billion in April 2025, as crypto prices weakened and post-GENIUS Act issuance slowed. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its $126,000 October 2025 peak, dampening trading-driven demand. Standard Chartered views these headwinds as cyclical and maintains that stablecoins could add nearly $1 trillion in incremental T-bill demand by 2028, reshaping U.S. rate markets.

Read more: Standard Chartered sees bitcoin sliding to $50,000, ether to $1,400 before recovery