Overview The market is comparing Tesla and SpaceX this summer for a concrete reason. On July 22, Tesla reported record quarterly revenue of $28.24 billion while its operating margin compressed to 1.4%Overview The market is comparing Tesla and SpaceX this summer for a concrete reason. On July 22, Tesla reported record quarterly revenue of $28.24 billion while its operating margin compressed to 1.4%
Tesla vs SpaceX Which Company Has the Bigger AI Opportunity in 2026
Penulis: James Mitchell
Bagikan
Overview
The market is comparing Tesla and SpaceX this summer for a concrete reason. On July 22, Tesla reported record quarterly revenue of $28.24 billion while its operating margin compressed to 1.4%, and the stock fell 14.5% the next session to close at $319.69. Around the same time, SpaceX, which completed the largest listing in history on June 12, has given back roughly half of its post-IPO peak of $225.64 and now trades below its $135 offer price. Both companies are directing enormous amounts of capital toward the same destination, artificial intelligence and robotics compute, yet their revenue structures, monetization timelines and risk exposures differ sharply. The question investors now face is which company turns a dollar of AI capital expenditure into future profit more efficiently.
Key Takeaways
Tesla's second-quarter revenue rose 26% to $28.24 billion, but operating income fell 57% to roughly $398 million and operating margin dropped to 1.4% from 4.1% a year earlier.
Capital expenditure rose 142% to $5.79 billion, R&D rose 49% to $2.37 billion, and free cash flow swung to negative $1.1 billion.
Roughly $763 million of Tesla's $1.11 billion GAAP net income came from an after-tax unrealized gain on its SpaceX stake rather than from operations.
SpaceX absorbed xAI in February, raised about $75 billion in its June Nasdaq listing, and then agreed to acquire AI coding company Cursor for $60 billion in stock.
The two companies are linked through the Terafab chip joint venture, Starlink connectivity in Cybercab, and shared AI supply chains.
The first lockup release and SpaceX's debut quarterly report, both due in early August, are the next decisive variables.
Two Sets of Numbers Bring the Narrative Back to Earth
Tesla delivered records and spent the profit
Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the quarter, up about 25% year over year and its highest quarterly total ever. Below the gross margin line, however, the arithmetic changed. According to Electrek's breakdown of the results, operating expenses jumped 47% to $4.35 billion and operating income fell to $398 million. Regulatory credit revenue shrank to $146 million from $439 million a year earlier, removing a near costless profit cushion.
The autonomy programs are advancing. Tesla confirmed in its second-quarter shareholder update that Robotaxi is live in seven major metros, with Miami, Orlando and Tampa added in July, that Cybercab production has begun, and that Optimus lines are under construction at Fremont. The issue is scale. Cumulative paid Robotaxi miles stand at roughly 2.5 million, a very small denominator against $5.79 billion of quarterly capital spending.
SpaceX returned to a valuation that must be defended
SpaceX took the opposite route, consolidating in private markets first and handing the finished structure to public investors in one step. Per Nasdaq's account of the debut, shares priced at $135, opened at $150, raised about $75 billion and implied a valuation near $1.77 trillion. The stock later reached $225.64 before unwinding. As of July 23, SPCX has been trading in the $115 to $120 range, below the offer price.
Segment disclosures explain the swing. The prospectus showed the Starlink connectivity business generating $11.4 billion of revenue and $4.4 billion of operating income in 2025, while the newly folded-in AI segment lost $6.4 billion from operations in 2025 and another $2.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with the space segment also unprofitable. SpaceX is using a high-margin telecom business to subsidize an AI business whose unit economics remain unproven.
Why the Two Are Now Priced Together
A one billion dollar paper gain
Tesla bought $2 billion of xAI convertible preferred stock in January. After SpaceX absorbed xAI, that position converted into roughly 18.99 million SpaceX Class A shares, a stake below 1%. In the second quarter the holding produced a pretax unrealized gain of $1.005 billion. Benzinga calculated that the after-tax figure of $763 million accounted for about 68.5% of Tesla's $1.114 billion GAAP net income.
The accounting implication matters. Tesla's reported earnings now move with SpaceX's share price, and with both stocks falling on July 23, a partial reversal in the third quarter looks likely.
Terafab ties the two balance sheets together
The deeper linkage is in silicon. Terafab was unveiled in Austin on March 21 as a joint venture funded by Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, with one line serving vehicles and Optimus and another serving orbital AI satellites. According to public filings cited by CNBC, the first phase costs about $55 billion and the full buildout could reach $119 billion, with Intel joining in April on design and packaging. First chips are targeted for late 2027 and volume production for 2028.
Asked on the earnings call whether the companies might combine, Musk said the overlap keeps growing, particularly around Terafab, but added that combining companies was not something he could discuss on an earnings call, per CNBC's report. How investors read that comment explains part of the recent correlation between the two stocks.
Two Very Different AI Routes
Tesla is betting on the physical world
Tesla's AI exposure sits in three places: FSD subscriptions, the Robotaxi fleet, and the Optimus humanoid robot. Active FSD subscriptions rose 56% in the quarter to 1.48 million, currently the only piece generating recurring revenue. Robotaxi and Optimus remain investment stage, and Musk told analysts Optimus is the hardest product Tesla has ever tried to manufacture because no supply chain exists for it.
The advantage is data and manufacturing depth. The disadvantage is equally clear: physical ramps are non-linear, a point the company makes itself.
SpaceX is betting on compute and distribution
SpaceX is trying to own the compute layer first and work downward. It absorbed xAI in February in a transaction that CNBC reported valued the combined entity at about $1.25 trillion. On January 30 it filed with the FCC for as many as one million orbital data center satellites, a plan that industry coverage notes depends on Starship and third-generation Starlink hardware. On June 16 it agreed to buy Cursor parent Anysphere for $60 billion in stock, a deal CNBC reports is expected to close in the third quarter subject to regulatory approval.
The advantage is a cash-generative base and a distribution channel. The disadvantage is that nearly every link in the chain is unvalidated, from Starship reliability and orbital thermal management to regulatory approval and the roughly 15 times revenue multiple paid for a software asset.
What This Means for Investors
Neither company is priced on current earnings, but the risks they ask investors to carry are different in kind.
Tesla's risk is time. The auto business still produced about $4.7 billion of operating cash flow in the quarter, but capital spending is consuming it faster, with full-year capex guidance above $25 billion and management indicating growth for another two to three years. Owning Tesla means paying the opportunity cost of today's car business to fund an autonomy and robotics business that has not yet reached scale.
SpaceX's risk is structural. Starlink profits are absorbing losses in both the AI and space segments, so a delay in either one widens the consolidated loss directly. A very small float and a dense unlock calendar add mechanical volatility on top of that.
For investors tracking both equities and digital assets, the two curves share one macro variable: how patient the market remains about the payback period on AI capital expenditure. On venues such as MEXC that cover both crypto assets and the narratives around them, AI and compute themed tokens sold off in July in close step with the AI complex in US equities, which is not a coincidence.
Three Points Where This Meets Crypto
Bitcoin on the balance sheet
SpaceX disclosed 18,712 bitcoin as of March 31 at a cost basis of roughly $661 million and a fair value of $1.29 billion, a figure CoinDesk confirmed from the S-1. Tesla holds 11,509. Grayscale's research notes that on a post-IPO market value basis SpaceX ranks among the largest public bitcoin holders, meaning passive index buyers acquire indirect bitcoin exposure when they buy the stock.
Tokenized equities
Several issuers launched 1:1 backed tokenized versions of the stock on listing day. Per CoinDesk's monthly data, on-chain tokenized equity volume rose 145% in June to a record $3.86 billion, with SpaceX-linked tokens accounting for $1.19 billion, roughly 31% of the total. It was the first time a single new listing drove the category.
Volatility that travels both ways
Tokenization brought leverage as well as access. In late June, SPCX-linked perpetual contracts saw more than $50 million of liquidations in 48 hours, ranking behind only bitcoin and ether on crypto derivatives liquidation screens at the time. When an asset trades on Nasdaq and on-chain simultaneously, stress in one venue amplifies the other.
Risks and What to Watch Next
Supply
Investing.com estimates that the first tranche triggered by the debut earnings report covers 911.5 million shares, more than $120 billion of potential supply at current prices. The Motley Fool points out that releases are staggered rather than simultaneous and that Musk's own shares stay locked until 2027, but the cadence alone is enough to cap a valuation recovery.
Execution
Starship Flight 13 aborted at ignition on July 16 and was waved off again for weather on July 23, with Spaceflight Now reporting a new target of July 24 and a mission profile that includes the first deployment of 20 third-generation Starlink satellites. The entire orbital compute thesis rests on Starship flight rate.
Governance and related parties
Tesla owns SpaceX equity, the two build Terafab together, Cybercab uses Starlink connectivity, and the in-car Grok assistant comes from the SpaceX side. The denser those relationships become, the harder it is for minority shareholders to value each company independently. Absent a formal filing, merger speculation should not be treated as settled fact.
Dates that matter
SpaceX's first post-IPO quarterly report is scheduled for early August and will disclose AI segment losses and any change in bitcoin holdings while triggering the first unlock. On the Tesla side, the pace of Cybercab entering Robotaxi fleets, the actual start of first-generation Optimus production, and the direction of the third-quarter SpaceX mark are three verifiable checkpoints.
Exclusive View from the MEXC Crypto Pulse Research Team
What matters in this drawdown is not one weak quarter at Tesla. It is that public filings now allow investors to cross-check the Musk complex's AI spending for the first time. For two years, Robotaxi, Optimus and orbital compute lived on slides. They now appear simultaneously in an income statement, a cash flow statement and the segment disclosures of a newly listed company. That changes how they get priced.
The market may be misreading two things. First, treating Tesla's reported net income as evidence of operational improvement, when nearly 70% of it came from revaluing a SpaceX stake that is likely to mark down in the third quarter. Second, attributing the SPCX decline mainly to lockups. Lockups set the timing, but the real disagreement is whether a business with roughly $16 billion of 2025 revenue and a $6.4 billion annual AI segment loss can sustain a trillion dollar plus valuation.
If investors watch only one thing, watch monetization speed rather than spending scale. At Tesla, that means whether weekly growth in paid Robotaxi miles holds and whether FSD subscriptions keep compounding at double digits. At SpaceX, it means whether Starlink profits continue to cover a widening AI loss and whether Starship flight rate improves. Capital expenditure is a promise. Revenue is evidence.
For crypto markets, the lesson is that valuation frameworks are now bleeding into each other. SpaceX carried bitcoin into index fund portfolios, and tokenized equities carried new-listing volatility onto perpetual futures venues. Cross-asset correlation is no longer a theoretical assumption; it is visible in liquidation data. That widens the opportunity set, and it also shortens the contagion path when a single narrative breaks.
FAQ
Why did Tesla stock fall after earnings?
Revenue set a record at $28.24 billion and beat expectations, but adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share came in well below the roughly $0.49 to $0.51 consensus. Operating income fell 57%, operating margin dropped to 1.4%, and free cash flow turned negative. Investors reacted to the direction of profit and cash flow rather than the size of the top line, sending the stock down 14.5% on July 23.
Why is SpaceX trading below its IPO price?
Less than 5% of shares were freely tradable at listing, so a supply and demand mismatch pushed the price up before it normalized. Recent pressure comes from three sources: the first lockup tranche of about 911.5 million shares in early August, dilution from the Cursor acquisition, and a broader AI sector pullback. Fundamentally, the AI segment's losses are still widening.
Does Tesla own a stake in SpaceX?
Yes. Tesla purchased $2 billion of xAI convertible preferred stock in January. After SpaceX absorbed xAI, that converted into roughly 18.99 million SpaceX Class A shares, a position below 1%. Tesla applies fair value accounting to the holding, so it produces unrealized gains or losses in every quarter depending on where SPCX trades.
What is Terafab?
Terafab is a chip manufacturing joint venture in Texas backed by Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, announced on March 21. One line is intended to produce inference chips for vehicles and Optimus, and the other chips for orbital AI satellites. Public filings indicate a first phase of about $55 billion and a full buildout ceiling near $119 billion, with first chips targeted for late 2027.
Will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
There is no formal announcement. Musk said on the second-quarter call that the overlap between the companies keeps growing, especially around Terafab, but stated he could not discuss combining companies on an earnings call. Until an official filing appears, merger speculation should not be treated as an accomplished fact.
How does any of this connect to crypto markets?
Three ways. SpaceX holds 18,712 bitcoin and Tesla holds 11,509, so passive buyers of either stock take indirect bitcoin exposure. The SpaceX listing drove on-chain tokenized equity volume to a record $3.86 billion in June, with SpaceX-linked tokens making up about 31% of it. And SPCX perpetual contracts briefly ranked behind only bitcoin and ether in liquidation volume, showing volatility moving across venues.
What should investors watch next?
SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company is due in early August and will disclose AI segment losses and bitcoin holdings while triggering the first share unlock. On the Tesla side, watch the pace of Cybercab entering Robotaxi fleets, the start of first-generation Optimus production, and the direction of the third-quarter SpaceX mark. The outcome of Starship Flight 13 also affects the credibility of the orbital compute thesis.
Disclaimer
This article is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, tax advice, or any form of trading recommendation. Prices of crypto assets, equities, and related financial instruments can move sharply, and investors may lose their entire principal. Data cited here is drawn from public market information, company announcements, regulatory filings, and third-party media, and may be delayed, revised, or inconsistent across sources, so readers should verify independently. Any investment decision should be based on your own research, financial circumstances, and risk tolerance, with professional licensed advice where appropriate. The MEXC Crypto Pulse Team accepts no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of or reliance on the information in this article.
About the Author
The MEXC Crypto Pulse Team focuses on crypto market trends, on-chain narratives, fintech developments, and digital asset ecosystem research. The team tracks public market data, company announcements, third-party market platforms, and industry news sources to help users better understand market structure, risks, and opportunities.
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