The main theme of U.S. stocks this week is not AI, but Liquidity. ADP private-sector employment in August increased by only 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000; ISM Manufacturing PMI andThe main theme of U.S. stocks this week is not AI, but Liquidity. ADP private-sector employment in August increased by only 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000; ISM Manufacturing PMI and
Belajar/Wawasan Pasar/Performa Pasar/U.S. Stock Weekly | Aug. 28–Sep.03 | HOOD Surges Nearly 20% in a Week, Bitcoin Breaks $81,000: Did You Make a Paper Profit in This Rally of U.S. Stocks and Crypto?
U.S. Stock Weekly | Aug. 28–Sep.03 | HOOD Surges Nearly 20% in a Week, Bitcoin Breaks $81,000: Did You Make a Paper Profit in This Rally of U.S. Stocks and Crypto?
The main theme of U.S. stocks this week is not AI, but Liquidity.
ADP private-sector employment in August increased by only 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000; ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings softened simultaneously. After the labor market continuously signaled cooling, Fed Governor Waller stated he is willing to keep interest rates unchanged if inflationary pressures ease—the probability of a September rate hike rapidly dropped from about 66%, and the sword hanging over risk assets has been temporarily sheathed.
The market's reaction was immediate and intense. On September 3, all three major indices rebounded, with the Dow Jones posting its best single-day performance in nearly a month; Bitcoin surged to $81,379 intraday, hitting a four-month high. The biggest gainers were not AI leaders, but U.S. stock targets in the crypto chain: Robinhood (HOOD) rose 19.7% for the week, and Strategy (MSTR) rose 14.3%.
In the same week, Broadcom (AVGO) reported a 221% year-over-year increase in AI semiconductor revenue, yet its stock price closed down 3.1%. Viewing these two events together reveals what is truly worth studying this week.
1. Key Sectors and Targets This Week
Macro Overview
Three major macro signals this week:
· ADP August private employment increased by only 38,000 (expected +48,000), ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings softened simultaneously, with continuous signals of a cooling labor market.
· Fed Governor Waller stated that he is willing to keep interest rates unchanged if inflationary pressures ease, causing the probability of a September rate hike to drop rapidly from about 66%; on September 3, the three major indices rebounded across the board, with the Dow Jones posting its best single-day performance in nearly a month.
· Bitcoin surged to $81,379 intraday, hitting a four-month high, while gold strengthened simultaneously; long-term yields and the US dollar both declined, with risk assets and safe-haven assets rising together in a rare occurrence.
AI Computing Power / Chips
Broadcom (AVGO) | This Week -3.1% · YTD +3.4%
Broadcom (AVGO) Q3 revenue was $29.59B, up 86% year-over-year; adjusted EPS was $3.32, beating the expected $3.24. AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7B, up 221% year-over-year and 54% quarter-over-quarter, with the company highlighting continued business expansion with Anthropic and OpenAI. Q4 AI semiconductor guidance accelerated further to $21.7B, up 236% year-over-year.
The numbers were nearly perfect, but the stock fell 3.1% after the earnings report. The reason lay outside of AI: Q4 total revenue guidance was $34.8B, slightly below the market expectation of $35.03B, as the recovery pace of non-AI businesses was slower than anticipated.
AI Safety
Zscaler (ZS) | This Week -3.0% · YTD -19.3%
Zscaler (ZS) Q4 revenue reached $898 million, up 25% year-over-year, surpassing the market expectation of $877 million; adjusted EPS was $1.19, beating the expected $1.09; ARR reached $3.77 billion, up 25% year-over-year, with net new ARR of $246 million for the quarter. Guidance for the first quarter of the new fiscal year also exceeded market expectations.
The earnings report itself was flawless, yet the stock price still closed down 3.0% for the week, bringing the year-to-date decline to 19.3%. The divergence between fundamentals and stock price is the most noteworthy aspect to watch for this ticker going forward.
Crypto / Brokerage
Robinhood (HOOD) | This Week +19.7% · YTD +9.7%
One of the strongest bulls in the US stock market this week. Bitcoin breaking through $81,000 drove a surge in trading volume, leading Robinhood (HOOD) to skyrocket 19.7% in a single week. More notably, on-chain data showed that on September 2, Robinhood Chain's Real World Asset (RWA) tokens recorded $390 million in single-day trading volume, with memecoin-stock pairs at $217 million and tokenized stocks at $127 million, both hitting all-time highs; 24-hour user fees on the network reached $3.75 million, also a historical peak.
Retail traders are not just back; they are trading with new products.
Strategy (MSTR) | This Week +14.3% · YTD -7.4%
The purest Bitcoin leverage proxy in the market. This week's gain significantly outperformed the coin price itself, indicating that as expectations of rate hikes recede, the beta of Bitcoin-holding companies is amplified to the greatest extent. However, note that MSTR is still down 7.4% year-to-date—the same leverage amplifies losses in both directions when the trend reverses.
Electric Vehicles / Autonomous Driving
Tesla (TSLA) | This Week +7.6% · YTD -14.0%
On Sep 3, Tesla (TSLA) unveiled the mass-production version of Cybercab in Austin—a two-seater autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, with a target price under $30,000, set to become the flagship model for its Robotaxi network. The market reacted positively, surging to its best single-day performance in nearly three months, with a cumulative gain of +18% over the past month.
However, TSLA is still down 14.0% year-to-date. Whether the Robotaxi narrative can translate into actual deliveries and revenue remains key going forward.
2. Stock Spotlight
Robinhood (HOOD): Weekly Gains Outpace Crypto Prices, Leveraging the Business Model
Bitcoin broke $81,000, and Robinhood’s (HOOD) weekly gains outperformed the coin price itself—this is no coincidence, but a leverage of its business model.
Robinhood’s revenue is directly tied to trading volume, which amplifies non-linearly in a bull market. This week, tokenized assets on the Robinhood Chain saw single-day trading volume of $390 million and user fees of $3.75 million, both hitting record highs. This indicates that retail investors are not just back, but are trading with new products. Once the interest rate hike alarm is lifted, every transaction on this chain turns into profit.
Worth further observation is the line of tokenized stocks. A single-day trading volume of $127 million is not significant in the context of traditional brokerages, but it represents a brand-new revenue curve with a regulatory framework still taking shape. If this segment continues to scale, HOOD’s valuation logic will no longer be just "beta on crypto markets."
Broadcom (AVGO): AI Delivers a Perfect Score, but the Market Starts Questioning the Other Half of the Business
AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.7B in a single quarter, up 221% year-over-year, with Q4 guidance accelerating further to $21.7B—the numbers were nearly perfect, yet the stock price fell.
The issue lies not with AI, but with everything outside of it. Q4 total revenue guidance of $34.8B was slightly below the market expectation of $35.03B, as the recovery pace of non-AI businesses (VMware, broadband, and enterprise storage) lagged behind expectations. When a company's AI narrative is already fully priced in, the market begins to scrutinize the remaining half of its business.
This is the second test that all AI beneficiary stocks will eventually face: Is AI growth fast enough to offset the weakness in non-AI businesses? Next week's earnings report from Oracle (ORCL) will be another example of this same question.
3. This Week's Discussion
Discussion 1: The worse the employment data, the stronger the stock market rally—this year, the market's reaction function has been inverted
In previous years, weakening employment meant recession fears; this year, it is exactly the opposite.
· Different policy background: Warsh's Fed is discussing rate hikes rather than rate cuts. The probability of a September rate hike once surged to about 66%, with interest rates still in the 3.50%–3.75% range. Under this premise, the risk suppressing the stock market is not recession, but tightening.
· So bad news is good news: As soon as employment data softened, the threat of rate hikes was withdrawn. With ADP showing only +38,000 and Waller softening his stance, the market immediately covered its risk exposure, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its best single-day performance in nearly a month on Sep 3.
· What to watch next: Only by understanding this reaction function can you understand why bad news drives prices up. Next week's PPI on Sep 10 and CPI on Sep 11 are the final variables determining the Sep 16 FOMC meeting—if inflation data rebounds, this logic will immediately reverse.
Discussion 2: With liquidity rebounding similarly, why is the crypto chain rising even more sharply than AI?
Bitcoin breaks $81,000; Robinhood (HOOD) up 19.7% for the week, Strategy (MSTR) up 14.3%, significantly outperforming the negative returns of Broadcom (AVGO) and Zscaler (ZS) over the same period.
· The reason is duration: Cash flows from AI stocks are already being realized, with a significant portion of their valuation derived from visible current profits; the value of crypto assets lies almost entirely in the future, so a drop in the discount rate naturally leads to greater valuation elasticity.
· Leverage structures further amplify this: Bitcoin-holding companies like MSTR act as leveraged proxies for the coin's price; HOOD converts market heat directly into revenue through the non-linear amplification of trading volume.
· But this works both ways: Prices fall just as quickly when the trend reverses. The crypto chain is the most sensitive thermometer for liquidity expectations, not the most stable position—a point clearly illustrated by MSTR's year-to-date decline of 7.4%.
4. Key Calendar for Next Week
Date | Type | Event | Key Focus |
Sep 7 (Mon) | Major Event | US Labor Day (US Stock Market Closed) | Only four trading days this week; liquidity is thin, with data concentrated in the latter half. Be aware that volatility may be amplified. |
Sep 9 (Wed) | Earnings | Oracle (ORCL) After Hours | The only major earnings report next week; AI cloud infrastructure orders and RPO backlog are key highlights, testing whether the AI capex narrative can continue after Broadcom (AVGO). |
Sep 10 (Thu) | Data | PPI Producer Price Index (Aug) | Upstream reading in the inflation chain, setting the tone for the next day's CPI; if upstream pressure eases, rate hike expectations will cool further. |
Sep 11 (Fri) | Data | CPI Consumer price index（CPI） (Aug) | Last inflation data before FOMC; this is the final variable determining whether rates will be hiked in September, with weekly risks concentrated on this day. |
Sep 15–16 (Tue–Wed) | Major Event | FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Announced Sep 16) | First rate decision since Warsh took office; the market currently prices in holding steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but the option of a rate hike has not been completely ruled out. |
*All dates above are in Eastern Time (ET). Earnings dates are subject to company announcements.
Next week's rhythm is "quiet first, then active": The Labor Day holiday leaves only four trading days for the week, with thinner liquidity; real risks are concentrated on Sep 10 PPI and Sep 11 CPI, followed directly by the FOMC decision window on Sep 15–16. It is recommended to pay attention to position risk control in advance.
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6. This Week's Q&A
Q1: Why did Broadcom’s (AVGO) stock price fall despite a 221% surge in AI revenue?
Because the market had already priced in AI's high growth, this quarter's incremental surprise was insufficient to further drive valuation. The real issue lies in the Q4 total revenue guidance of $34.8B, slightly below the expected $35.03B—the gap stems from the slower-than-expected recovery in non-AI businesses such as VMware, broadband, and enterprise storage. When the AI segment is fully priced in, the remaining half of the business becomes the new pricing variable.
Q2: Is Robinhood’s (HOOD) 19.7% rise purely following Bitcoin's gains?
It is related, but not entirely. HOOD's revenue is directly linked to trading volume, which expands nonlinearly during hot markets, so its gains outperform the coin price. Meanwhile, this week's on-chain data for Robinhood Chain (RWA daily trading volume of $390 million, user fees of $3.75 million) both hit record highs, representing genuine volume growth from its own product lines rather than just passive following.
Q3: Zscaler (ZS) earnings comprehensively exceeded expectations, so why did the stock price still fall?
The earnings figures were indeed flawless—revenue +25%, EPS beat expectations, ARR at $3.77 billion, and guidance for the new fiscal year was raised. However, ZS has accumulated a -19.3% decline year-to-date, indicating that the market remains divided on its valuation and competitive landscape. The persistent divergence between fundamentals and stock price usually leads to one of two outcomes: either the stock price catches up, or the market sees something beyond the earnings report. More quarterly data is needed to make a judgment; it is too early to draw a conclusion.
Q4: Rate hike or rate cut? How should we understand the Fed's direction now?
Currently, interest rates are maintained at 3.50%–3.75%. The market is discussing whether to raise rates, not cut them—which is completely different from the context of the past two years. The probability of a rate hike in September once reached about 66%, but it declined this week due to softer employment data and comments from Waller. Before the FOMC meeting on Sep 15–16, the PPI on Sep 10 and the CPI on Sep 11 are the two most critical variables.
Q5: Crypto-related stocks have surged so much; where are the risks?
The risk lies in their two-way elasticity. The crypto ecosystem is most sensitive to liquidity expectations; it rallies most sharply when discount rates fall, and drops fastest when expectations reverse. MSTR's year-to-date performance of -7.4% is a direct example—a single-week gain of +14.3% does not guarantee a positive annual return. This is a matter of position structure and risk budgeting, requiring judgment based on individual holdings and risk tolerance, with no one-size-fits-all answer.
Disclaimer: This content is for market information and educational reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The individual stocks mentioned are subjects of public market discussion and do not represent recommendations or opinions from MEXC. Investment involves risks; please exercise your own prudent judgment. Stock price fluctuations are based on publicly available market information, subject to final market quotes. This material is provided by the MEXC US Stock Spot Team. The copyright of this weekly report belongs to MEXC; please cite the source when reposting.
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