USDA cuts output forecast for PHL rice, citing typhoon damage

THE US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said it reduced its estimate for Philippine milled rice production in marketing year 2025-2026 to 12.3 million metric tons (MMT), following typhoon damage to crops in November.

The revised estimate for the current marketing year is 2% lower than November’s projection of 12.6 MMT and down 1% from the year-earlier 12.37 MMT, the USDA said in a report.

The USDA’s marketing year starts in July and ends in June of the following year.

The USDA said the harvested area for the marketing year is projected at 4.7 million hectares, also 2% lower than the month-earlier estimate, and slightly below the year-earlier one. The yield estimate was downgraded 1% to 4.15 tons per hectare.

The USDA said initially favorable growing conditions were offset by heavy rainfall in early to mid-November brought on by Typhoon Fung-wong, known in the Philippines as Uwan.

“Torrential rains led to localized flooding in the northern Philippines’ major rice-producing provinces, most notably, Central Luzon and the Cagayan Valley. Combined, these two regions account for roughly a third of quarter four rice output,” the report said.

The USDA said the regions experienced widespread flooding, with early analysis indicating more than 250,000 hectares of rice fields inundated.

The USDA added that while rice can tolerate short periods of flooding, extended inundation during the crop’s advanced development stage is expected to weigh on fourth-quarter yields.

Meanwhile, the USDA also projects a decline in rice imports for the year, following the government’s temporary import ban.

In a separate report, the USDA estimated that Philippine rice imports this year will total 3.5 MMT, down from a revised estimate of 3.7 MMT in a previous report.

In August, the Philippines, the world’s top rice importer, announced a 60-day ban on rice imports starting September to assist farmers facing low farmgate prices. The ban was extended to the end of the year, with imports ex-pected to resume in January. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel