Fed Raises Rates 25bps for First Time in Three Years, Dot Plot Signals Extended Tightening Cycle【MEXC Alpha Trader – Daily Market Brief (September 18, 2026)】

I. Macro & Market Sentiment

• Market Data: BTC $76,685 (+0.47%) | ETH $2,456 (+1.26%) | SOL $102 (+3.25%)
• Market Sentiment: Funding Rate +0.0066% | Fear & Greed Index 56 (Greed)
• Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate hike to 3.75%-4%, marking the first increase since July 2023. The dot plot shows that 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year, while the median rate projection for end-2026 rose to 4.1%. Analysis: The unanimous vote and hawkish dot plot confirm market consensus around an extended tightening cycle. Elevated long-end Treasury yields, with the 10-year approaching 5% and the 30-year exceeding 5.3%, reflect a repricing of the neutral rate, while sustained liquidity tightening continues to pressure risk assets. Read more
• Institutional Outlook: Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a second 25bp hike in October, while Macquarie anticipates an additional 50bp of tightening, with 25bp hikes in December 2026 and Q1 2027. However, Bloomberg's chief economist notes that three key indicators monitored by Walsh suggest limited room for further tightening. Analysis: The divergence between higher institutional rate forecasts and indicators pointing to limited tightening capacity warrants attention to potential peak-rate signals and liquidity inflection points. Read more
• Capital Flows: Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to $9.25 trillion as of the end of July, down $50.4 billion from June and marking a nine-month low. Japan reduced holdings by $12.8 billion, while China cut holdings by $15.4 billion. Analysis: Foreign selling contrasts with the U.S. 10-year yield approaching 5%; whether this level can attract renewed capital inflows will influence global liquidity and risk asset pricing. Read more

II. Trading Signals / Hotspots

[Today's Focus] ZEC | ETF Inflows Propel Privacy Coin into Top 10 by Market Cap, Up Over 2,300% in One Year

Zcash, a long-established privacy coin infrastructure asset, has reclaimed $1,200, with a market capitalization of approximately $20 billion, placing it among the top 10 crypto assets by market cap. Grayscale's ZCSH has attracted approximately $179 million in cumulative inflows over 11 trading days since listing on NYSE Arca.

Analysis: ETF access opens a compliant institutional pathway into the privacy coin sector, while ZCSH inflows indicate that these assets are shifting from the margins toward mainstream allocation. However, substantial gains also increase the risk of profit-taking pressure.

Read more

[US Stocks Focus] NVDA | Tech Sector Rallies After Rate Hike, AI Chips and Optical Communications Show Resilience

Following the Fed's rate hike, AI chip and optical communications stocks broadly advanced. NVIDIA rose 0.82%, Intel gained 4.03%, AMD climbed 1.65%, while optical communications names Lumentum and Coherent rose 9.59% and 6.92%, respectively.

Analysis: The technology sector's gains despite the rate hike suggest continued market confidence in the durability of the AI hardware cycle. Capital is still prioritizing high-growth assets with relatively strong earnings visibility despite tighter monetary conditions, although upcoming earnings will need to validate current valuations.

Read more

[Unusual Move] BTC / ETH | ETF Outflows Near $500M Over Two Days as Institutional Caution Intensifies

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $295.9 million in net outflows yesterday, including $144 million from IBIT and $52.7 million from FBTC. Ethereum ETFs recorded $222.4 million in net outflows, including $110 million from ETHA.

Analysis: Consecutive ETF outflows after the rate hike suggest that institutional capital is waiting for additional policy signals. Short-term liquidity pressure has increased, but the absence of a corresponding sharp price decline suggests spot holders remain reluctant to sell.

Read more

III. Regulation & Major Events

• United States | The House Financial Services Committee is advancing the American Reserve Modernization Act, which would place existing government-held bitcoin into a strategic reserve for at least 20 years. The 2026 version removes the previous 1 million BTC purchase target. Analysis: If enacted, the bill would establish bitcoin's status as a national strategic asset. Although the purchase target has been removed, the long-term lockup mechanism would still support expectations of tighter supply. Read more
• United States | Markets expect the SEC and CFTC to actively advance digital asset rulemaking, with crypto innovation exemptions expected as early as Friday or early next week. Seven Senate Democrats issued a joint statement pledging continued support for advancing the Clarity Act. Analysis: Although the Clarity Act failed to reach the 60-vote threshold, signs of bipartisan cooperation and rising expectations for near-term SEC policy support indicate that the push toward clearer regulation is accelerating. Read more
• Hong Kong | The Chief Executive's 2026 Policy Address proposes improvements to virtual asset licensing regimes and tokenization regulatory frameworks, while promoting regulated stablecoin trading on licensed platforms for the settlement of tokenized money market funds. Arrangements for 24/7 central bank digital currency operations are scheduled for completion by year-end. Read more
• Security | The Celsius bankruptcy estate has sued BitMEX to recover 6,360 BTC, valued at approximately $495 million, alleging fraud, market manipulation, and improper forced liquidations during the March 2020 market crash. Read more

IV. Platform Exclusive Benefits

• Loss Compensation Program (Phase 3) (Futures)
• August Futures Team Competition (Futures)
• Alpha Trader September Welcome Campaign (Futures)

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Recommended Reading: MEXC On-Chain Daily Report: U.S. SEC Introduces Innovation Exemption for On-Chain Trading of Tokenized Stocks

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