Analyst Warns of Imminent “Liquidity Sweep” on Bitcoin Ahead of BOJ Decision
Michaël van de Poppe, the Amsterdam-based analyst followed closely by crypto traders, warned followers over the weekend that Bitcoin could see a “classic sweep” early in the week, a quick downward grab of liquidity that flushes out weak hands, before reversing back into an upwards trend.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a classic sweep on Monday taking place on Bitcoin. After that; upwards trend back on,” he wrote, adding that the coming days are likely to be “significantly volatile” as the Bank of Japan prepares a policy decision and a heavy macro calendar lands in the last full trading week before the holidays.
Traders watching price action woke to Bitcoin trading in the low-$90,000s, a range that has become something of a battleground after a volatile December so far. Live market feeds showed Bitcoin hovering around $90–90.5k as of Sunday, with several data providers reporting minimal net movement but thinner-than-usual volumes, the exact market conditions van de Poppe said typically precede a fast directional move.
Market structure and open derivatives positions add a sharper edge to any short-term move. Exchange analysis flagged roughly $23.8 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire this month, a concentration of expiries that historically can amplify price swings as delta hedges and forced liquidations cascade through the order books. In plain terms, when a large chunk of options expires, market makers and traders sometimes need to buy or sell underlying Bitcoin aggressively to balance risk, and that can magnify whichever direction the price chooses.
Traders Brace for Year-End Volatility
Overlaying those technical and derivatives risks is an unexpectedly impactful macro backdrop. Major outlets and market calendars pointed to the Bank of Japan as a focal point this week, with Reuters reporting that BOJ watchers widely expect further rate action as the central bank’s hiking cycle resumes. That decision, together with a packed schedule of U.S. data releases, from jobs to inflation figures, delayed into the final weeks of the year, creates the kind of cross-asset event risk traders dislike, especially when liquidity is already light.
On the charts, many traders are explicitly watching the same mechanics van de Poppe described. A commonly circulated four-hour chart that has been shared among traders marks a line at roughly $91,900 as an important short-term level; above that lies a resistance band near $100,700 that would likely need to be cleared for a clean bullish resumption.
The same chart annotates the possibility of a downward sweep to pick up liquidity before any sustained rally, a scenario that would be consistent with the “classic sweep” language. With volume subdued over the past 48 hours, the path of least resistance could be a fast, sharp move rather than a slow grind. What this means for investors depends on horizon and risk tolerance.
Short-term traders may position for a two-stage move: a liquidity sweep to take out stops below recent consolidation, followed by a rebound that traps sellers and propels price toward higher resistance. Longer-term holders are watching whether key support bands hold through the broader market’s reaction to central bank signals. As some institutional voices remind clients, sudden volatility this late in the year can create opportunities but also steep drawdowns, a reminder to size positions sensibly if day-to-day swings are a concern.
If Monday brings the sweep van de Poppe anticipates, the immediate story will be about how fast markets can absorb that move and whether options expiries and central-bank headlines push the bounce into a sustainable uptrend. If the BOJ’s steps surprise to the upside or U.S. data shifts the Fed narrative, the squeeze could be particularly sharp.
Conversely, a coordinated slide through key supports could trigger heavier selling before bargain hunters step back in. Either way, traders should expect noise and keep an eye on volume, the signal many say will determine whether the post-sweep move is a corrective blip or the start of something larger.
For now, van de Poppe’s view represents a familiar read among a cluster of technical-focused traders: volatility first, direction second. In a market where options expiries, central-bank decisions and thin year-end liquidity all converge, that’s a forecast many will be watching closely as the week unfolds.
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