In July 2026, the full-season earnings reports for the US stock market's Mag7 concluded with a major test of "AI monetization capabilities." Same theme (AI), same group of institutional investors,In July 2026, the full-season earnings reports for the US stock market's Mag7 concluded with a major test of "AI monetization capabilities." Same theme (AI), same group of institutional investors,
Belajar/Market Insights/Others/U.S. Stocks Weekly Report | Jul 24–30: MSFT Azure Surges 43% vs Meta’s 14% Profit Shrinkage—Mag7 Earnings Wrap Up, AI Winners Emerge?
U.S. Stocks Weekly Report | Jul 24–30: MSFT Azure Surges 43% vs Meta’s 14% Profit Shrinkage—Mag7 Earnings Wrap Up, AI Winners Emerge?
In July 2026, the full-season earnings reports for the US stock market's Mag7 concluded with a major test of "AI monetization capabilities."
Same theme (AI), same group of institutional investors, same month, two completely different stories.
Microsoft's Q2 revenue reached $90B (+18%), with Azure growth at +43%, surpassing an annualized $100B for the first time, and Copilot boasting 30 million paid seats—the dual engines of "cloud infrastructure + AI tools" saw simultaneous revenue explosions, making its AI monetization logic the clearest. Meanwhile, Meta's Q2 revenue of $60.8B (+28% YoY) exceeded expectations, with AI-driven precise ad targeting boosting ad impressions by +14% and average ad price by +12%; however, net profit fell 14% year-over-year, dragged down one-time by legal fees and layoff costs. These two companies showed the market that while AI monetization capabilities vary in strength, cost structure is the core variable behind recent valuation divergences.
Meanwhile, the FOMC July meeting voted 9-3 to keep interest rates unchanged, but the three votes in favor of a rate hike sent a hawkish signal that exceeded market expectations; NVDA pulled back this week, while AAPL reclaimed its position as the company with the largest global market cap; next week's ISM Manufacturing PMI and the July non-farm payrolls report will be key data for the market to judge the next path of rate hikes.
Four main themes resonated intensely within the same week. This article breaks down the core investment logic of U.S. stocks for the week from four dimensions.
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Theme 1: Mag7 Earnings Wrap-Up—The Great AI Monetization Showdown
MSFT: Azure +43%, Copilot with 30 Million Paid Seats—The Clearest AI Monetization Story
Microsoft delivered the clearest AI monetization report among the Mag7 this quarter:
- Total Revenue $90B, +18% YoY, beating analyst estimates across the board
- Azure Growth +43%, annualized revenue surpassed $100B for the first time, exceeding prior market expectations
- Copilot Paid Seats 30 Million, willingness to pay for enterprise tools has translated into real, measurable revenue
- Cloud infrastructure (Azure) and AI tool layer (Copilot) form a two-tier synergistic growth structure
Metric | Value | Market Interpretation |
Q2 Revenue | $90B (+18%) | Beat expectations across the board, no obvious weaknesses |
Azure Growth | +43% YoY | Annualized revenue surpassed $100B for the first time, a historic milestone |
Copilot Paid Seats | 30 Million | Paid conversion rate for enterprise AI tools is being substantially realized |
AI Monetization Logic | Two-tier (Infrastructure + Tools) | A moat difficult for other Mag7 companies to replicate in the short term |
The core narrative of this earnings report is a "shovel + pickaxe" closed loop: Microsoft first deploys Azure cloud infrastructure (the shovel), then sells Copilot AI tools on top of it (the pickaxe). These two revenue layers lock in customers and drive synergistic growth. This two-tier structure is Microsoft's core competitive advantage distinguishing it from other Mag7 companies—it does not rely solely on advertising or hardware, but directly monetizes AI capabilities through enterprise software subscriptions.
Bull Case: Azure's growth rate is accelerating, and the increase in Copilot seats proves that enterprises' willingness to pay for AI has moved beyond the "trial" phase. If this growth rate is maintained in the next quarter, annualized cloud revenue exceeding $100 billion will become the new baseline.
Key Metrics to Watch: As competition intensifies (with Google Cloud and AWS also ramping up efforts), whether Azure's growth rate can continue to accelerate and the ARPU trend for Copilot are the most important indicators to track in the coming quarters.
META: Revenue +28%, but Profit Down 14%—Strong AI Ad Monetization, Costs Are the Only Recent Variable
Meta's Q2 tells a different kind of structural story:
- Revenue $60.8B, +28% YoY, beating analyst expectations
- Ad Impressions +14%, Average Price per Ad +12%—AI-powered precise targeting continues to boost ad efficiency
- But Net Income -14% YoY, dragged down by one-time legal fees and May layoff costs
- Q3 Revenue Guidance $61–64B, showing management's confidence in revenue visibility
Metric | Q2 Data | Analysis |
Revenue | $60.8B (+28% YoY) | Ad revenue exceeded expectations, strong demand |
Ad Impressions | +14% | AI targeting improves ad efficiency and reach |
Average Price per Ad | +12% | Advertisers willing to pay higher prices, pricing power remains solid |
Net Income | -14% YoY | One-time drag from legal fees + layoff costs |
Q3 Guidance | $61–64B | Management confident, solid revenue logic |
Both interpretations have merit—this is the core divergence behind the pressure on META's stock price this week: Bulls argue that the revenue-side logic is extremely solid, with AI-driven advertising continuously improving efficiency; the decline in profits is due to one-time costs, and a rapid rebound is expected in Q3. Bears are concerned about the lack of stability in profit visibility; if cost control fluctuates, valuations will remain under pressure.
From a long-term perspective, AI's enhancement of META's advertising capabilities is structural: improved precision in personalized recommendations means higher ad conversion rates for the same traffic volume—this is the underlying driver for simultaneous growth in ad impressions and unit prices, and will not be reversed by cost fluctuations in any single quarter.
Theme 2: FOMC Hawkish Signals—3 Votes for Rate Hikes, How Will Next Week's Data Alter the Hiking Path?
FOMC 9-3, Holds Rates—but 3 Hawkish Votes Warrant Serious Attention
This week, the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep interest rates unchanged, which was the most surprising signal of the meeting: the market had generally anticipated a 10-0 or 9-1 outcome, and the proportion of members advocating for an immediate rate hike was significantly higher than market expectations.
This means: The divergence between hawks and doves is intensifying, and there is no strong consensus within the FRB regarding inflation and employment.
Signal | Content | Market Impact |
Vote Result | 9 votes to hold, 3 votes for rate hike | Hawkish voices significantly strengthened |
Core Concern | Overheated job market | NFP is the biggest variable next week |
Potential Path | Further rate hikes this year not ruled out | Upward pressure on discount rates for growth stocks |
Reverse Condition | Cooling employment / Softening PMI | Hawkish narrative could be quickly reversed |
For growth stock investors, the 3 hawkish votes mean that the discount rate risk facing high-valuation stocks has not completely dissipated. Watch two key data points next week:
Aug 3: ISM Manufacturing PMI
After the hawkish signals land, whether manufacturing sentiment softens in tandem will be the first window for correcting rate hike expectations. If the PMI falls short of expectations, the market will begin to question "whether rate hikes are truly necessary."
Aug 7: July Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
An overheated job market is the core argument for the three hawkish voters. If July NFP exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations for the year will strengthen significantly; if NFP cools down, the hawkish narrative will be reversed—this month's NFP is the biggest market catalyst next week.
Theme 3: NVDA Pulls Back, AAPL Reclaims Top Global Market Cap—What Does the Shift Mean?
AAPL: Reclaims Top Market Cap—Apple Intelligence Upgrade Cycle Is Kicking Off
AAPL stock ended the week with a slight decline of -0.1%, but it was still enough to reclaim the title of the world's largest market cap against the backdrop of NVDA's -5.6% pullback.
AAPL's Q3 FY2026 earnings report was released after hours this Thursday, with mixed results:
- Total Revenue $109.4B (+16% YoY), beating market expectations of $108.65B
- iPhone Revenue $54.3B (+22%), setting a June quarter record, beating expectations of $53.86B
- Services Revenue $30.7B (+12%), slightly below expectations of $31.2B
- Greater China $18.8B (+22%), below expectations of $19.5B
Segment | Actual | Est. | Vs. |
Total Revenue | $109.4B (+16%) | $108.65B | ✅ Beat Est. |
iPhone | $54.3B (+22%) | $53.86B | ✅ Beat Est., Set Quarterly Record |
Services | $30.7B (+12%) | $31.2B | ❌ Slightly Below Est. |
Greater China | $18.8B (+22%) | $19.5B | ❌ Slightly Below Est. |
The strategic significance of Apple Intelligence lies in its direct integration of AI capabilities into the existing iPhone upgrade cycle. It does not require separate promotion of "AI features," but rather naturally facilitates user upgrades through the device replacement process. The 22% increase in iPhone revenue has validated the existence of this upgrade cycle; however, the slightly below-expectation performance in both Services and Greater China indicates that the "monetization breadth" of AI penetration has not yet fully covered the entire ecosystem—this is the core variable to track closely next week.
NVDA: Down 5.6%—Computing Power Demand Logic Unchanged, Short-term Sentiment Fluctuation
NVDA dropped 5.6% this week, primarily influenced by overall market sentiment and profit-taking, rather than being a signal of a fundamental turnaround:
- Mag7 earnings continue to validate the rapid growth of cloud providers' AI capex
- The shipment cycle for Blackwell architecture chips remains the core logic
- There is no substantial change in the global GPU supply and demand structure
From a longer-term perspective, the trend of cloud providers collectively increasing AI capital expenditures (with MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN all having annual capex in the $200B range) remains the strongest endorsement for NVDA's computing power demand.
Theme 4: AMZN—AWS +31%, e-commerce profit margin is the next point of divergence
Amazon's Q2 2026 earnings report was released after hours this Thursday, beating expectations across the board:
- Total Revenue $200.6B (+20% YoY), exceeding market expectations
- AWS Revenue $42.2B (+37%), significantly beating analyst estimates (+31% to $40.5B), the fastest growth in 18 quarters
- Full-year capex raised to $220B (previously expected $200B), with increased investment in AI infrastructure
- AI and custom chip businesses each exceeded $25B annualized, specifically highlighted by CEO Andy Jassy
- Operating Income $27.5B (+43% YoY), AWS operating margin 39.4%
Metric | Actual | Est. | Comparison |
Total Revenue | $200.6B (+20%) | — | ✅ Beat Estimates |
AWS Revenue | $42.2B (+37%) | $40.5B (+31%) | ✅ Significantly Beat Estimates |
AWS Operating Margin | 39.4% | — | ✅ Healthy |
Full-year Capex | $220B (Raised) | $200B | Market focuses on payback period |
AWS +37% was the biggest surprise of the quarter—far exceeding expectations and marking the fastest growth rate in 18 quarters, indicating an accelerating slope in the migration of AI workloads to cloud computing. Although the upward revision of capex to $220B has temporarily raised market concerns about the "payback period," data showing annualized spending on AI and self-developed chips each exceeding $25B demonstrates that AMZN's AI monetization has made substantial progress, rather than being a one-way outflow of capital expenditure.
V. Review of Core Holdings Performance This Week
Ticker | Sector | Weekly Change | YTD Change | Core Thesis |
NVDA NVIDIA | AI Compute / Chips | -5.6% | +4.5% | Short-term pullback, but the logic for compute demand remains unchanged; cloud providers' AI capex continues to hit new highs, with the Blackwell shipment cycle remaining central |
MSFT Microsoft | Cloud Services / Enterprise Software | +16.5% | -7.4% | Q2 Azure +43%, surpassing $100B annualized; 30 million Copilot seats prove AI tool monetization has become real revenue |
META Meta Platforms | AI Internet / Advertising | -1.6% | -11% | Q2 revenue +28%, strong AI monetization in advertising; however, net profit -14%, with one-time costs being a recent variable suppressing valuation |
AAPL Apple | Consumer Tech | -0.1% | +22.5% | Q3 revenue $109.4B (+16%), iPhone revenue +22% setting a quarterly record; Services and Greater China slightly missed expectations, upgrade cycle already realized |
AMZN Amazon | E-commerce / Cloud | +1.4% | +2.1% | AWS revenue +37% to $42.2B, significantly beating expectations (fastest growth in 18 quarters); capex revised up to $220B; annualized spending on AI and chips each exceeds $25B |
VI. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1: MSFT Azure +43%, can this growth rate be sustained?
Whether Azure can maintain a growth rate of over 40% depends on two variables: first, whether the penetration rate of paid AI tools for enterprises can continue to rise (the growth slope of Copilot's 30 million seats); second, the competitive landscape for market share against Google Cloud and AWS. Based on this quarter's results, Copilot's paid conversion has moved beyond the "early adopter" phase into the scaling phase, providing strong support for maintaining a growth rate of over 35% in the next 2–3 quarters.
Q2: META profit -14%, is this a structural issue or a one-time factor?
Based on this quarter's data, legal expenses and layoff costs in May are one-time factors, not signals of declining operational efficiency. The dual-growth structure of +14% in ad impressions and +12% in average price per ad demonstrates that the AI monetization logic on the revenue side is extremely solid. The Q3 guidance of $61–64B shows management's high confidence in revenue visibility. If costs return to normal ranges, profit elasticity will be quickly released in Q3. In the short term, this is a one-time drag from costs, not a model-based decline.
Q3: Copilot and Azure follow the "shovels and picks" logic. Can other companies replicate this?
Replication is extremely difficult. Microsoft's moat lies in: Azure providing infrastructure (locking in enterprise cloud workloads), and Copilot providing the tool layer (locking in enterprise workflows). The deep integration of M365 and Azure creates a dual moat of "platform + application." Among the other Mag7 companies, Google relies on advertising + cloud, Meta on advertising, and Apple on hardware + services—each has its own logic, but Microsoft's B2B two-tier structure is the hardest to replicate in the short term.
Q4: Three hawkish votes at the FOMC meeting—what does this mean for US stocks?
Short-term pressure is concentrated on high-valuation growth stocks. Hawkish signals indicate an increasing probability of a "delayed rate-cut window," and sustained high discount rates will suppress tech stocks whose valuations are primarily based on future earnings. However, the contrarian view is: if next week's ISM PMI and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) both cool down, hawkish expectations may be quickly corrected by the market, significantly releasing the valuation elasticity of growth stocks. The persistence of hawkish signals depends on whether the data truly remains overheated.
Q5: AAPL Reclaims Top Global Market Cap, What Does It Signal?
This reflects the market's preference for deterministic revenue. Although NVDA has a strong computing power thesis, its stock price exhibits high volatility; AAPL, supported by the Apple Intelligence upgrade cycle and coupled with the high certainty of service revenue, is the "high-quality growth" choice for institutions in an uncertain environment. From an allocation perspective, AAPL's valuation elasticity stems from the increased penetration of service revenue, rather than solely the iPhone hardware cycle—this gives it stronger counter-cyclical resilience than pure hardware companies.
Q6: Next Week's ISM PMI and NFP, Which Is More Important?
While both have different focuses, NFP is more critical. ISM PMI reflects manufacturing sentiment and is a leading indicator of hawkish concerns within the FOMC; NFP directly points to labor market heat and serves as the core rationale for the three voters advocating rate hikes. If NFP exceeds expectations, the probability of another rate hike this year will rise significantly; if NFP cools below the market expectation range, the hawkish narrative will reverse, and the discount rate pressure facing growth stocks will ease rapidly—this month's NFP is the biggest market catalyst for next week.
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Disclaimer: This content is for market information and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The individual stocks mentioned are subjects of public market discussion and do not represent recommendations or opinions from MEXC. Stock price fluctuations are based on public market information and subject to final market conditions. Investment involves risks; please make your own prudent judgments.
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