The second quarter of 2026 ended with a stunning closing signal: the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke its historical record, and the US stock market recorded its strongest quarter since 2020.The second quarter of 2026 ended with a stunning closing signal: the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke its historical record, and the US stock market recorded its strongest quarter since 2020.
Belajar/Wawasan Pasar/Performa Pasar/Meta Takes on AWS — 5 Key Investment Themes for U.S. Stocks in Q3 2026 as the AI Landscape Reshuffles
Meta Takes on AWS — 5 Key Investment Themes for U.S. Stocks in Q3 2026 as the AI Landscape Reshuffles
The second quarter of 2026 ended with a stunning closing signal: the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke its historical record, and the US stock market recorded its strongest quarter since 2020. However, the market has not yet recovered from the celebration. On July 1st, Meta dropped a heavy bomb - officially announcing its entry into Cloud Services and launching "Meta Compute", directly challenging AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud.
Everything that happened this week is not just market noise, but a precursor to the upcoming structural restructuring of the AI industry ecosystem. This article will break down the core investment logic of the US stock market in the second half of 2026 from five main threads.
Main Line 1: Meta Compute - AI moves from infrastructure to platform, and large-scale manufacturers begin to "sell computing power".
What is Meta Computing?
Meta Compute is a Cloud Service business officially announced by Meta Platforms on July 1, 2026, allowing external companies to purchase Meta's AI computing resources and model API access. This means that Meta has transformed from a "pure AI computing power purchaser" to an "AI computing power seller".
This is one of the most significant business model transformations in the AI industry in recent years.
What is the essential difference between Meta Compute and CoreWeave?
The market's initial reaction to Meta Compute is that the stock prices of independent cloud computing companies such as CoreWeave and Nebius have fallen sharply. However, upon further analysis, the competitive barriers between the two are completely different.
Contrast dimension | Meta Compute | CoreWeave / Nebius |
Core products | AI computing power + Llama model bundling | Pure computing power leasing (no self-owned model) |
Capital endorsement | $1,250-145 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 | Independent financing, higher cost of capital |
Cost structure | Self-built infrastructure with extremely low marginal costs | Rental/self-built mixed, higher cost |
Competitive Edge | Differentiated AI products (model + computing power combination) | Pure commoditized competition |
Relationship with NVIDIA | Signed large-scale long-term contracts | Also rely on NVIDIA |
Key insight: Meta can bundle the Llama model with computing power, providing enterprise customers with a "one-stop AI solution" rather than a pure computing commodity. This is a differentiated advantage that independent Cloud as a Service provider cannot replicate.
Who are the real beneficiaries of Meta Compute?
NVIDIA (NVDA) : Meta Compute is built on NVIDIA's AI infrastructure, and the demand for computing power has not only not decreased, but has expanded due to the acceleration of monetization.
Arista Networks (ANET) : Leading player in hyperscale data center network switch, Meta's new round of expansion directly drives high-speed network infrastructure orders.
CoreWeave : Short-term impact, but Meta and its 21 billion dollars long-term locked contract until 2032, short-term stock price decline or overpricing.
Main Line 2: Apple + Microsoft Price Increase - DRAM Super Cycle, Pricing Power Has Structurally Changed
Why are Apple MacBook and Microsoft Xbox significantly increasing in price?
One of the most shocking news in consumer electronics in 2026 is that Apple and Microsoft voluntarily raised the prices of their products, and the direct reason points to one word: DRAM contract prices have risen sharply .
This is not an accidental event, but an inevitable result of the AI memory battle.
The core logic of DRAM super cycle
Time node | DRAM contract price changes | Core drivers |
2025 H2 | Began to rebound | AI Data center construction accelerated |
2026 Q1 | Significant increase | The competition for HBM is intense, and general DRAM is being squeezed out |
2026 Q2 | Continue to climb | Supply cannot expand rapidly, and demand has no ceiling |
2026 H2 (expected) | Maintain high | HBM4 online bandwidth increases by another 50%, demand continues |
Why can't consumer electronics manufacturers digest it on their own this time?
In the past, every round of DRAM price increases, consumer electronics manufacturers such as Apple, Samsung, and Lenovo would usually absorb upstream cost pressures on their own to maintain product competitiveness. But this round in 2026 is different.
- AI Data Center's unprecedented demand for memory has compressed the purchasing bargaining space of consumer electronics manufacturers
- The production capacity of the DRAM supply side (mainly MU, Samsung, SK Hynix) is prioritized towards HBM, and the supply of general DRAM is tight
- The cost increase far exceeds any previous memory cycle and cannot be digested internally
This is a highly signaling turning point: the pricing power of storage vendors has undergone a structural shift .
Relevant stock investment logic
Micron Technology (MU) : The strongest quarter in Q3 revenue history, Q4 guidance continues to exceed expectations; HBM's full-year capacity for 2026 has been fully sold out, and the capacity reservation for 2027 has been launched. This week's profit correction does not change the fundamental direction.
SanDisk (SNDK) : Separated from Western Digital, it is a pure AI NAND target. The cumulative increase in NAND contract prices in 2026 is significant, and institutions generally raise their target prices. As a new spin-off company, the initial volatility is relatively large, but the fundamentals benefit from the same trend.
Main Line 3: SNDK - the new protagonist of the AI NAND era, the investment logic of spin-off listing
Why was SanDisk spun off from Western Digital?
SanDisk was officially spun off and listed independently from Western Digital (WD) in 2026, becoming a pure company focused on NAND flash memory. The spin-off logic is as follows:
- The valuation logic of WD's HDD (traditional mechanical hard disk) business is very different from that of NAND business, and the market gives HDD business a lower valuation multiple, dragging down the overall market value
- After independence, SNDK can obtain a valuation premium that matches the NAND super cycle
- Management can focus more on AI Data center enterprise NAND product roadmap
Why does AI Data Center need a large amount of NAND?
AI training and inference require massive data storage.
- Training datasets for large language models (LLM) often reach the petabyte level
- The demand for low-latency storage in AI inference scenarios has exploded (NVMe SSD replaces traditional storage).
- Meta, Microsoft, Google and other large-scale Data centers continue to expand, and each new Data center requires a large number of enterprise-level NAND
This means that SNDK is in an important position in the AI infrastructure demand chain.
Main Line 4: Arista Networks - AI Data Center "Invisible Beneficiary", Expanding Continuously
Why does the AI era need a better network switch?
The computing requirements of AI clusters place extremely high demands on the internal network of data centers.
- GPUs require extremely low latency and ultra-high bandwidth interconnection (InfiniBand or Ethernet).
- A single AI training cluster often has thousands to tens of thousands of GPUs, and the cost of network equipment accounts for a significant increase in the overall data center investment
- Meta and Microsoft's new round of hyperscale Data center expansion directly drives demand for high-performance Ethernet switches
Arista Networks (ANET) is a leading global data center network switch manufacturer and one of the infrastructure targets directly benefiting from the expansion of AI computing power.
An Overview of ANET's Investment Logic
Dimension | Content |
Market position | Data center network switch leader |
Major customers | Meta, Microsoft, Google and other hyperscale clients |
AI benefit logic | Every new AI Data center requires a large number of high-speed Ethernet switches |
Competitive advantage | The EOS operating system ecosystem has strong programmability and is favored by large-scale customers |
Risk | Some customers' self-developed network equipment (such as Meta's self-developed router) has substitution risks |
Main thread 5: June NFP and Fed path - the most important macro variables in the second half of the year
What does the June NFP employment report mean?
The June Non-Farm Payroll Report (NFP) released on July 2, 2026 is a key reference for the direction of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy in the second half of the year. The market generally expects employment to be lower than the previous value. If the actual data is weak, it will send the following signals to the market.
- Labor Market Cools → Wage Inflationary Pressure Eases
- Fed rate hike path → October/December rate hike probability lowered
- Growth stocks benefit → risk-free interest rate expectations decline, high-valuation technology stocks valuation space reopened
Two core verifications in the second half of the year
Verification 1: Federal Reserve Path (July FOMC is a key node)
The July FOMC meeting will be the most important time window for the market to reprice the path of interest rate hikes. If NFP is weak and inflation data is moderate, the probability of pausing interest rate hikes will increase, and growth stocks will receive valuation support.
Verification 2: Q2 financial report season (starting from mid-July)
This is a more direct question than macro data: Can AI capital expenditures translate into actual revenue growth for Mag7?
Company | Key points |
META | Meta Compute Business Progress, Advertising Revenue Growth Rate |
NVDA | Blackwell Capacity Realization, Data center Revenue |
MSFT | Azure AI penetration rate, Co-pilot monetization |
GOOGL | AI search ads share, TPU self-developed progress |
AMZN | AWS AI service revenue, Trainium progress |
If the Q2 financial report season is stronger than expected, the "soft landing + AI-driven growth" narrative will receive the strongest fundamental endorsement, and the expansion of growth stock valuation will be more sustainable.
Review of the performance of core targets this week
Target | Plate | Increase this week | Increase this year | Core logic |
MU Micron Technology | Storage/HBM | -12.7% | +238% | Strongest post-quarter profit correction in Q3 history; HBM capacity sold out |
SNDK SanDisk | AI NAND | -14% | +600% | WD spin-off new standard; NAND pricing momentum continues |
META Meta | Platform Technology | +3.6% | -11.2% | Meta Compute declares war on AWS, Mag7 leads the way |
NVDA NVIDIA | AI computing power | ±0% | +4.5% | Blackwell Acceleration; Meta Compute is built on it |
ANET Arista | AI network | ±0% | +21.1% | Large-scale expansion drives network infrastructure orders |
AAPL Apple | Consumer electronics | +8.5% | +12.8% | MacBook/iPad price increase; AI memory cost is transmitted to the consumer end |
IV. Frequently Asked Questions FAQ
Q1: Will Meta Compute damage NVDA?
No, it's actually a benefit. Meta Compute is built on NVIDIA's AI infrastructure. Meta's entry into the Cloud Service market means it will continue to purchase a large number of NVIDIA GPUs. Large-scale manufacturers have shifted from "buying computing power" to "selling computing power", expanding the scale of the entire AI computing power market. As an upstream chip supplier, NVDA is the most direct winner.
Q2: MU and SNDK fell sharply this week, can we still hold on?
This week's decline is a profit correction, not a signal of fundamental reversal. MU's HBM 2026 production capacity has been fully sold out, and Q4 revenue guidance has greatly exceeded expectations; SNDK's NAND pricing trend has not changed. The core logic - AI memory super cycle - still holds. The price increases of Apple and Microsoft are precisely the most powerful evidence of this logic.
Q3: What are the risks of SNDK as a new spin-off company?
The main risks include: ① The liquidity of the new Listed Company is relatively low and volatile; ② The initial valuation discovery of the spin-off takes time; ③ If the NAND price cycle reverses, the downward trend may exceed MU. However, from the perspective of the structural growth of AI Data center demand, the medium-term logic is still clear.
Q4: Why did AAPL rise this week?
Apple's price increase (MacBook/iPad) is actually a positive signal: it shows that its pricing power is still strong, and consumers are willing to pay for AI devices with more memory. At the same time, if the Fed's interest rate hike path softens, Apple, as a high-free cash flow growth consumer technology stock, will also directly benefit from valuation revaluation.
What should we pay the most attention to in the second half of the year?
Two main threads: ① July FOMC decision + NFP data - determining the path of interest rate hikes, affecting the valuation of all growth stocks; ② Q2 financial report season (starting from mid-July) - the realization of AI revenue from Meta, NVDA, and MSFT is the real test question that determines whether Mag7 can maintain a high valuation.
Disclaimer: This content is based on open market information as of July 2, 2026, independently compiled by the MEXC US stock spot team, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
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