Reference period : October 21 - October 28, 2026 Release time : October 29, 2026 Data sources : MEXC platform data, Farside Investors, CoinGlass, CoinDesk, Reuters, CNBC TL;DR Macro side : TheReference period : October 21 - October 28, 2026 Release time : October 29, 2026 Data sources : MEXC platform data, Farside Investors, CoinGlass, CoinDesk, Reuters, CNBC TL;DR Macro side : The
Belajar/Wawasan Pasar/Analisis Topik Populer/MEXC Crypto Research and Weekly Trading Report: FOMC Stay Still, Can Bitcoin Hold $80,000?
MEXC Crypto Research and Weekly Trading Report: FOMC Stay Still, Can Bitcoin Hold $80,000?
Reference period : October 21 - October 28, 2026
Release time : October 29, 2026
Data sources : MEXC platform data, Farside Investors, CoinGlass, CoinDesk, Reuters, CNBC
TL;DR
- Macro side : The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.75% -4.00% on October 28, but two votes advocated a rate hike, and the probability of a rate hike in December increased from 78% to 86%. The decision is not surprising, and the pressure comes from the expectation of a rate hike it left behind.
- Market : BTC fluctuated around $80,000. On the weekend of October 24th-25th, it fell to about $79,220, and the entire network was liquidated at $815 million; after the resolution, it returned to around $81,000, but it has not yet returned to $81,400.
- Capital Divergence : US Spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of about $138 million from October 21st to 27th, while the exchange had the largest single-day BTC net outflow in five weeks. ETF funds are weak, and on-chain chips are leaving the market to hoard coins, with the two going in opposite directions.
- Next week's outlook : Focus on PCE and oil prices on October 29th. The defensive level looks at $80,000, and if it falls below, it looks at $78,000 and $76,000.
1. This week's main theme: What happened?
Two things formed the trend of this week. Firstly, on October 24th-25th, the report of US evacuation from the Middle East fermented during the weekend when the US stock market was closed, and the crypto market became the only major asset that could be sold. 24-hour liquidation 815 million dollars . Secondly, on October 28th, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged , stating that "inflation is still high", and the vote was 10-2, with both votes against raising interest rates. Chairperson Walsh did not make any commitments for December at the press conference, only saying "more information is needed", while mentioning that energy prices "have risen again in recent weeks".
2. FOMC Resolution Review: Why "Do Nothing" Still Pressure BTC?
Summary of the event : The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on October 28, with a vote of 10 to 2, and both opponents advocated raising interest rates. The statement stated that "inflation remains high"; Chairperson Walsh did not make a commitment to December, only saying "more information is needed" and mentioning that energy prices "have risen again in recent weeks".
Cross-asset transmission : high oil prices → inflation expectations are difficult to reduce → December interest rate hike pricing rose to 86% → 10-year US Treasury yields rose to 5.04% → risk-free returns increased, US dollar liquidity tightened → BTC under pressure → ETH, SOL fell
- Oil price : On October 28th, WTI crude oil was about $101.7/barrel, and Brent was above $110. There are reports that the US may take short-term military action against Iran after the midterm elections on November 3rd, and energy inflation is difficult to retreat in the short term. MEXC can track oil prices through the OIL (WTI) USDT perpetual contract.
- US Treasury : After the resolution , the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by about 5 basis points to 5.04% , and the 2-year fell instead. The market is pricing in "rate hikes postponed to December" rather than "no rate hikes".
- Encrypted assets : In the past 7 days , ETH fell 5.1%, SOL fell 4.8%, and BTC fell 3.4% . Under the expectation of tightening, the decline of counterfeit products is about 1.5 times that of BTC.
- Technology stock sentiment : The AI sector is a co-directional indicator of crypto risk appetite. This week, Tesla Q3 Free cash flow turned positive to $1.50 billion and lowered annual capital expenditures Meta saw its first cash outflow due to AI investment, dragging down the Nasdaq by 2.6% on October 22nd. On October 26th Anthropic publicly submitted an application for listing , planning to list on NASDAQ with the code ANT. The AI chip stock then rose for three consecutive days, and the Nasdaq regained lost ground. Tesla can be traded through the Tesla stock contract TSLAUSDT on MEXC.
Long and short game focus :
- Multi-party : Maintaining interest rates has been fully priced, and BTC has risen instead of falling after the resolution; the net outflow of the exchange indicates that someone is hoarding coins at a low level; the weekend liquidated some leverage.
- Bears : 86% probability of interest rate hike in December, two votes advocate interest rate hike, tightening has not ended; ETF is still flowing out; the US-Iran situation after the election may push up oil prices again.
- Market bias : short-term oscillation. BTC held on to $80,000, but could not stand at $81,400. Both bulls and bears did not take the initiative, and the direction should wait for PCE and ETF funds to give signals.
Alt: BTC/USDT October 21-28, 2026 K-line
3. Where are the key support and resistance for Bitcoin and Ethereum next week?
$80,000 is the "fig leaf" that BTC bulls and bears repeatedly competed for this week, while $81,400 is the "ceiling" that suppressed the rebound. Although the weekend liquidation cleared some leverage, it did not change the short-term oscillation pattern. The direction needs to wait for signals from PCE data and ETF funds.
[The following points are only market technical observation, do not constitute any investment advice, data source: crypto.news , on-chain data ]
BTC Key Price Points and Logic
Type | Price range | Basis and logic |
Resistance | US $81,400 | The location of the 9-day moving average requires a three-day closing stop to confirm short-term strength |
Resistance | $82,000 - $82,500 | The previous intensive trading area above the 21-day moving average (about 81,900) has heavy selling pressure |
Support | $80,000 | The psychological barrier was penetrated over the weekend but quickly recovered, and the buying pressure was clearly accepted here |
Support | $78,000/$76,000 | The next level of technical support, if 80,000 misses the rules, will be tested in sequence |
Strong support | $76,500 | The average cost basis for short-term holders (STH). CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that the current average profit margin of STH is about 5.5%, and this cost line is the key defense line for holders to defend the entry price |
Note: CryptoQuant's latest analysis clearly sets the STH cost base at $76,500 and points out that the current STH is still profitable (with a profit margin of about 5.5%), which means that there is a real "psychological account" supporting logic at this position, rather than a simple technical line drawing.
ETH key price and logic
Type | Price range | Basis and logic |
Resistance | $2,400 | In mid-October, the lower edge of the platform was sorted out, also near SMA20 (about 2,426). |
Resistance | $2,530 | The upper edge of the mid-October range is close to the SMA50 (about 2,538) |
Support | $2,300 | After falling below for the first time in two months on October 25th, it quickly recovered, and the lower shadow line confirmed the existence of buying pressure |
Strong support | $2,160 | SMA200 is the last line of defense for the mid-term trend of Ethereum |
Note: ETH's current technical analysis is weak: RSI14 is around 37.5, in a weak area; Closing Price is below SMA20 and SMA50, with MACD in a bearish arrangement. This means that ETH's rebound requires stronger catalysis rather than a simple technical repair.
Fund signal: ETF and chain appear "directional divergence"
This is the most noteworthy detail this week: ETF funds are withdrawing, but on-chain chips are leaving to hoard coins.
- ETF side: Farside data shows that there was a significant inflow of $524.80 million (IBIT 235 million, FBTC 212.70 million) on October 21st, but a total outflow of $774 million from October 22nd to 23rd, and a re-inflow of $110 million on October 26th. The overall rhythm is "in the first half of the week, out in the second half of the week", with a slight net outflow throughout the week.
- On the upper end of the chain: According to Santiment data, about 14,942 BTC had a net outflow from the exchange on October 27th, the largest single-day net outflow in five weeks. This means that although there are redemptions in the ETF channel, spot holders are moving their chips out of the exchange rather than preparing to sell.
The meaning of divergence: The outflow of ETFs is more of a short-term adjustment of trading funds, while the net outflow on the chain reflects the "hoarding" behavior of holders. When the two directions are opposite, short-term prices may be under pressure, but the medium-term supply side is tightening.
Alt：BTC ETF Flows
Scenario deduction
Scenario | Trigger signal | Observation interval |
More | BTC closed above 81,400 on the third day; ETF had continuous net inflows; PCE was lower than expected or oil prices fell back | BTC looks at 82,000-82,500, then up to 84,200; ETH looks at 2,400-2,530 |
Skewed | BTC effectively falls below 80,000; ETF returns to outflow; post-election oil prices rise, December interest rate hike pricing continues to rise | BTC sees 78,000, 76,000, strong support at 75,800; ETH falls below 2,300 |
4. This week's market focus: Anthropic's IPO submission and Ethereum upgrade delay
4.1 Anthropic Submits IPO: AI Narrative Returns and Related Transaction Opportunities
On October 26th, Anthropic announced that it has submitted an IPO application to the SEC and plans to list on NASDAQ under the symbol ANT. The company has secretly submitted the application in June, and this time it is publicly disclosed. The valuation, issuance size, and listing date have not yet been announced.
- Market reaction : Nasdaq rose 0.8% that day; chip stocks rose for the third consecutive day on October 27th, and Nasdaq rose another 1.2%. Broadcom rose nearly 4% as banks and Blackstone agreed to provide financing for its supply of AI chips to Anthropic.
- Why it matters : This week, the AI sector was first scared off by Meta's capital expenditure and then pulled back by Anthropic. AI narrative is a common anchor for US stocks and crypto risk appetite this quarter.
- How to view MEXC data : [Anthropic Pre-IPO contract October 26-27 volume/position changes; AI sector token performance]
- Further reading : [Anthropic IPO Latest Progress] ([Learn Link]), [How to Participate in Anthropic Pre-IPO] ([Learn Link])
4.2 Ethereum Glamsterdam Extension: EIP-8037 Vulnerability and ETH After-market Deduction
The Hoodi testnet activation scheduled for October 26th has been cancelled and there is no new date. According to CryptoTicker , the core developers removed the activation from the Hoodi configuration on October 22nd. The reason is that the audit company ChainSecurity found a security issue, not a software glitch.
- Where the problem lies : EIP-8037 modifies the billing method of newly stored Gas. Under the new rule, after an external call fails, the contract may retrieve more Gas, resulting in an incorrect conclusion for its remaining Gas check. So far, 13 affected online contracts have been identified.
- The unaffected part : The Sepolia testnet and Ethereum mainnet that were activated on October 6 are running as usual.
- The impact on ETH : The mainnet time is uncertain, and the short-term impact is limited; but the expectation of the December launch is basically dashed, and ETH lacks a medium-term narrative support.
Next week's macro calendar: PCE data and tech giants' financial reports
Time (UTC + 8) | Event | May affect | Related transactions on |
2026/10/29 2:00 | Federal Reserve interest rate decision, 02:30 press conference | Market expectations remain at 3.75% -4.00%; if implying a rate hike in December, BTC 80,000 support pressure | |
10/29 morning | Microsoft and Alphabet financial reports | Will AI capital spending continue to expand? | |
2026/10/29 20:30 | US Q3 GDP Preliminary, September PCE, Initial Claims | PCE is the Fed's most important inflation indicator | |
2026/10/29 21:15 | ECB interest rate decision | Dollar index direction | |
10/30 morning | Amazon financial report | AI cloud business requirements | |
November 3 | US midterm elections | There are reports that the US may take short-term military action against Iran after the election, and oil prices and risk aversion are key |
According to Kitco , federal funds futures show a roughly 90.6% chance of maintaining rates this time and a 73% chance of another rate hike before the end of the year.
6. What are the welfare activities of MEXC this week?
Last week, MEXC held [300] platform events covering spot, contract, and new currency trading. Key events include:
Event time: October 20, 2026, 18:00 (UTC + 8) - Anthropic Pre-IPO Launchpad officially launched
Activity Highlights:
- Be the first to pay attention to Anthropic Pre-IPO hotspots: Focus on popular AI tracks and explore new investment opportunities in Anthropic Pre-IPO!
- Complete the task and win up to 4 chances to win prizes: there is a chance to win surprise gifts such as ANTHROPIC (PRE), NVIDIA H200 GPU, etc.!
- Popular assets + heavyweight awards: Participate in activities to win popular Pre-IPO assets and high-value hardware rewards. Don't miss out on these great gifts!
Event time: October 21 18:00 - January 19, 2027 18:00 (UTC + 8)
Activity Highlights:
- Daily check-in, earn points easily: Check-in daily to receive XP points, participate with zero threshold, easily accumulate points!
- Complete trading tasks and earn up to 74,550 XP: Participate in trading tasks, earn generous points, and unlock more rewards!
- Points Mall, Redeem Gifts as You Like: Use XP to redeem multiple gifts such as contract experience gold, stock positioning airdrops, and token rewards, making every point valuable for money!
Event time: open for a long time, daily 14:00 - the next day 14:00 (UTC + 8)
Activity Highlights:
- Daily trading, win free contract trial gold: participate in daily activities, enjoy trading benefits, and win additional rewards!
- Maximum 500,000 USDT 0-fee transaction amount per session: Daily statistics of the highest 500,000 USDT 0-fee transaction amount, enjoy low-cost trading experience!
- LAUNCH Online Meme + Zone : Open spot trading on October 26th, spot grid trading requires App 5.1.0 and above.
FAQ
Why did Bitcoin fall on October 21-27?
Mainly the geopolitical impact of the weekend of October 24-25: the US Middle East evacuation report fermented when the US stock market was closed, causing the 815 million dollar to be liquidated. Prior to this, the total outflow of 774 million dollars from ETFs on October 22-23 also weakened the buying pressure.
Is Bitcoin falling below $80,000 a panic sell?
On-chain data does not support this judgment. Most of the profit-taking orders were settled before the breakthrough on October 22nd; the realized losses on October 24th and 25th were only 59 million and 100 million US dollars, far below the daily median of about 367 million US dollars this year. The reference level below is the cost price of short-term holders, about 75,820 US dollars.
Is the Bitcoin ETF flowing in or out this week?
Overall, there was a small outflow, with a rhythm of "entering in the first half of the week and exiting in the second half of the week". According to Farside Investors , the total net outflow of US spot Bitcoin ETF from October 21st to 27th was about 138 million US dollars. On October 21st, there was an inflow of 525 million US dollars, on October 22nd to 23rd, there was a total outflow of 774 million US dollars, and on October 26th, there was a re-inflow of 110 million US dollars.
When will the Ethereum Glamsterdam upgrade go live?
There is currently no confirmed date. The Hoodi testnet activation scheduled for October 26th has been cancelled due to EIP-8037 security issues, and the mainnet time has not been announced.
When will Anthropic be available?
The listing application has been publicly submitted on October 26th, and it is planned to be listed on NASDAQ with the code ANT. The specific listing date, valuation, and issuance size have not yet been announced.
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in December?
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December after the October 28th decision is about 86%. The key variables are the PCE data on October 29th and the trend of oil prices.
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Disclaimer : This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto asset prices are volatile and macro and geopolitical events may significantly affect the market. The trading pairs mentioned in the article are for data presentation only and do not constitute buying or selling advice.
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